Agriculture projections for the CAFE programme and the EEA’s 2005 State of the Environment and Outlook report Stéphane Isoard Project manager, Prospective analysis coordination CAFE 2nd Stakeholder meeting on agriculture baseline, 8 October 2003

The EEA’s 2005 State of the Environment and Outlook report EEA regulation: “EEA shall publish a report on the state of, trends in and prospects for the environment every five years, supplemented by indicator reports focusing upon specific issues” Support to mid-term review of the 6th EAP. Link to the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (integration of environment into sectors). In the SoEOR2005, prospective analysis across sectors and themes to: Show distance to politically agreed targets and potential co-benefits between policies Provide early warnings of environmental impacts (compared with “sustainable” targets) Show potential alternative pathways and strategies The development of EEA’s air and climate change scenarios is linked as much as possible to the CAFE programme.

Rationales for additional agriculture projections In the current version of RAINS, projections for the 2010-2020 period are made upon the basis of various global or regional studies, rather than on an analysis of the specificities of European driving forces and political issues. EEA’s air and climate change scenarios address policy options as well as environmental impacts and therefore there is a need for projections up to 2020/30. Agriculture projections usually focus on short&medium term issues (up to 2010). In this respect, projections up to 2010 should incorporate recent CAP mid-term review / reform agreements. -> There is a need to update and expand RAINS agriculture projections, in particular from 2010 onwards. In consultation with DG ENV (CAFE secretariat), DG AGRI & DG RTD, a call for tender has been published by the EEA on 15th Sept. 2003 entitled ‘Outlooks on selected agriculture variables for the SoEOR2005’ that can be accessed at: http://org.eea.eu.int/tenders (EEA/RNC/03/016) http://ted.publications.eu.int (2003/S 184-165730)

Main features of EEA’s call for tender (1) Total budget is 90,000 EUR over a period of 9 months. Deadline for receipt of tenders is 6th November 2003. Undertake quantitative (model-based) outlooks for selected agriculture variables: - (1) Livestock patterns (i.e. number of living animal): Dairy cows, Other cattle, Sows, Fattening pigs, Laying hens, Other poultry, Sheep and goats. - (2) Fertilizers consumption: use of nitrogen (N, split into consumption of “UREA” and “OTHER N mineral fertilizers”), phosphate (P) and potassium (K) mineral fertilisers + Cropping patterns (i.e. areas and volumes): cereals (wheat, barley, oat, rye, etc.), maize, rice, oilseed rape, permanent crops (e.g. vineyard, fruits and olive trees), etc. - (3) Supplementary information: Macroeconomic assumptions used in the projections (e.g. exchange rates), Assumptions about the agricultural policies taken into account (i.e. anticipated change of WTO agreements, EU policies and agreements, etc.), Assumed changes (in time) in productivity for animals (i.e. change in off-take (slaughter) weights, milk production, egg production), Assumptions about the improvement in efficiency of application.

Main features of EEA’s call for tender (2) The outlooks will have to supplement the existing projections used in the RAINS model within CAFE and therefore make use as much as possible of the existing European Commission projections developed up to 2009/2012 (DG AGRI). The projections will be used in the RAINS model for CAFE and EEA's air and climate change scenarios in order to make projections of emissions of pollutants (e.g. nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), ammonia (NH3)). The scenarios will be discussed and agreed between the contractor and the EEA, taking on board the advice/comments from an Advisory Group consisting of representatives from the Commission (DG ENV, DG AGRI, DG TREN, DG RTD) and additional experts. Scope of the study: as many as possible of EEA 31 member countries + Switzerland. Results should be reported at national level. Timeframe: up to 2020 for all the variables and as many as possible of these up to 2030.

Main features of EEA’s call for tender (3) The following 5 tasks are foreseen: Task 1: Provide an overview of the most recent outlooks at European and national levels for the selected agriculture variables. Task 2: Provide a detailed discussion of the (economic, sectoral, political and social) driving forces for the selected agriculture variables and how they affect farmers' and consumers' behaviours (e.g. risk attitude, technology adoption, etc.). Task 3: Analysis of the future development of the key driving forces and running the baseline scenario. Task 4: Development of two alternative scenarios to the baseline projection (e.g. contrasting a liberalized versus a protected EU agriculture market or illustrating alternative assumptions for technological change/shift and social trends). Task 5: Final report to the EEA + database of the results.