VERIFICATION – DAY 4 - 82 – High - CLD: 5/10

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 68 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

- torn reports > yest.= ? RADAR LOOP And the winners are … VERIFICATION – DAY 3 - 82 – High - CLD: 5/10 - PA RAIN ? - torn reports > yest.= ?

WED P.M. SFC MAP L

NAM MODEL FCST – 500 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED.

NAM MODEL FCST – 500 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) WED. NAM MODEL FCST – 500 MB map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

THRS LATE P.M. SFC MAP L L

WED CAPE (NAM)

THR CAPE (NAM)

WED HELICITY (NAM)

THR HELICITY (NAM)

SPC MESO

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3 - EWALL

Cloud top Height ? (50,000 ft. vs. 20,000 ft.) 500 mb -15C -10C -15C

Cyclogenesis

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3 - EWALL

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – 700 mb map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) THR.

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 8 p.m. (00z) THR.

GFS MODEL FCST – Precip. From 2 pm to 8 pm

MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends

RISING AIR = CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Ways to produce rising motion: FRONTS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS MOUNTAINS (ORAGRAPHY) CONVECTION

WED CAPE (GFS)

THR CAPE (GFS)