Human Impact on Ecosystems Climate Change: Predicting Adaptability

The Greenhouse Effect

Human contributions to heat-trapping greenhouse gases

What Do The Climate Models Indicate? Michigan 2030: Ohio summers Michigan 2095: Arkansas summers, Ohio winters   PREDICTED CHANGE What Do The Climate Models Indicate? 1 2 3 4Two of the nation’s most sophisticated climate models, running on some of the world’s most powerful computers, give similar results.

Great Lakes ecosystem impacts Kirtland’s warbler, Dendroica kirtlandii One of the first species protected by ESA in 1967 50 years of conservation efforts 167 singing males counted 1987 1,813 singing males counted 2010

Kirtland’s warbler specific habitat requirements 90% nest in pine barrens near Au Sable River Build ground nests on porous glacial deposition sand up to 1000’ deep that protects from flooding Nest under low branches of young, post-fire jack pines, Pinus Banksiana

Jack pine, Pinus banksiana temperature-sensitive species Range has shifted northward in response to rising global temperatures Southern edge of range overlaps Grayling sands of north central lower peninsula of Michigan

Question Will the recovering endangered species Kirtland’s warbler, Dendroica kirtlandii, be able to adapt to rising global temperatures? Small group research Class discussion