OC 3570 January 2006 Cruise Project

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Presentation transcript:

OC 3570 January 2006 Cruise Project Differences in AREPS predicted near-surface refractivity conditions from measured radiosonde data, 12-HR ETA forecast, and 12-HR NOGAPS forecast Leg 2---22-26 January 2006 LT Keir D. Stahlhut

Should expect to see some evidence of ducting in time periods 1 through 5 based on Rosenthal (1979) synoptic thumb rule

Problem: ETA only computed to 1000 mb level over water (if fields available over water at all), and NOGAPS intermittently computed to 1013 mb level forecast model soundings do not contain high enough resolution near the surface to accurately display surface based ducting (and forget about seeing an evaporative duct). Cruise data NOGAPS model

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 23, ~ 00Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 23, ~ 12Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 24, ~ 00Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 24, ~ 12Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 25, ~ 00Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 25, ~ 12Z

Cruise data ETA(12km) Model NOGAPS model Jan 26, ~ 00Z

Jan 23, ~ 00Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 23, ~ 12Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 24, ~ 00Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 24, ~ 12Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 25, ~ 00Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 25, ~ 12Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Jan 26, ~ 00Z Cruise/ETA/NOGAPS

Results: Estimated “maximum” detection ranges for “Generic AN/SPS-67-like” radar at 10 m height, of a “generic R/V-like” vessel with < 60 m detectable height 23/00z 23/12z 24/00z 24/12z 25/00z 25/12z 26/00z Cruise ~ 25 km ~ 15 ~ 10 ETA ~ 20 NOGAPS Both Models Under predict - ETA shows some ducting, NOGAPS does not Both Models Under predict - Both show some ducting ETA Over predicts, NOGAPS Under predicts – ETA shows duct, NOGAPS does not ETA Over predicts – ETA shows duct, NOGAPS show super refractive surface layer Both Models Under predict – Both show some ducting Both Models Under predict – ETA shows duct, NOGAPS show super refractive layer Models good approximation to reality – environment has virtually no ducting Conclusions: No clear trends. It is possible that when there is no duct present, the models will better forecast propagation ranges, compared to when a duct is present. Over ocean AREPS predictions near the surface using model data will most likely not be accurate due to lack of resolution at near-surface levels.