Fire Weather November Training Days

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Presentation transcript:

Fire Weather November Training Days Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2004

Picking the “really bad day” Ash Wednesday case Canberra/Alpine outbreak case Wangary Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Case studies – Ash Wednesday 1983 Mesoscale modelling – done What made it unusual – depth of front Deep fronts > worst fire weather in southeast Australia (80% bushfire deaths in top 0.2% of cases) Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Wangary? Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Wangary Not (?) an Ash Wednesday, but deep front, strong pressure rise So how did it rate, and what about a few days out? Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

South Australian Region: (37.5S,130.0E) – (30.0S, 140.0E) Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Medium Range Predictability? WANGARY (GASP) 5 days : 2.4 / 300K – x 4 days : 2.7 / 300K – x 3 days : 4.8 / 300K –  2 days : 4.3 / 300K –  1 day : 3.7 / 300K –  0 day : 4.2 / 300K (0600 UTC) Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Forecasts very consistent from 72 hours – strong front + strong post-frontal winds Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Seasonal forecasts – more or less “strong fronts” in a given season? Opportunities? Medium range alerts Seasonal forecasts – more or less “strong fronts” in a given season? Climate change scenarios Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Scott Power & Rob Colman Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005

Therefore subjective for now BUT look at 850 TEMP forecasts Challenges: Calibration of models Therefore subjective for now BUT look at 850 TEMP forecasts Confidential © Bushfire CRC Ltd. 2005