Charles “Cody” Smith, PE Prince William County Potomac River Commuter Ferry Study & Route Proving Exercise A Summary of Project Purpose and Results Presented by: Charles “Cody” Smith, PE Greenhorne & O’Mara September 23, 2010

Study and Route Proving Exercise Goals Obtain actual run times between ferry stops in VA, MD & DC Obtain vessel wake measurements during runs Obtain noise measurements at various points along the Potomac River Observe operations to determine feasibility of docking locations Determine likely capital and operating costs for service Determine likely fares and ridership using VDOT 2000 feasibility study model Apply data to previous 2000 ferry study and provide conclusions & recommendations

RPE Vessel General Particulars: Length Overall.…………98 feet Beam……………………31 feet Draft…………………….5.5 feet Speed……………………30 knots Passenger Capacity……...149 people

Anticipated Run Times and Distances Time and Distance from potential docking locations Quantico Harbor Station Prince William Marina Occoquan Harbour Marina Belmont Bay Indian Head Fort Belvoir Marshall Hall National Harbor Old Town Alexandria Reagan National Airport Washington D.C. (Southwest Waterfront) Washington D.C. (Anacostia Waterfront) Time (Minutes) -- 13.3 30.9 27.8 21.1 14.6 28.1 32.2 52.3 48.9 61.9 57.4 57.8 7.41 25.6 22.5 15.8 9.3 22.8 26.9 47.0 43.6 56.6 52.1 52.5 13.47 10.50 3.1 9.8 18.9 31.9 36.0 56.1 52.7 65.7 61.2 61.6 12.96 9.99 0.51 6.7 28.8 32.9 53.0 49.6 62.6 58.1 58.5 11.84 8.87 1.63 1.12 9.1 22.1 26.2 46.3 42.9 59.5 51.4 51.8 8.11 5.14 6.73 6.22 5.10 14.0 18.1 38.2 34.8 47.8 43.3 43.7 15.68 12.71 14.04 13.53 12.41 7.70 6.9 27.0 23.6 36.6 32.1 32.5 17.36 14.39 15.72 15.21 14.09 9.38 3.04 24.1 20.7 33.7 29.2 29.6 26.60 23.63 24.96 24.45 23.33 18.62 12.28 10.02 11.0 24.0 19.5 19.9 27.49 24.52 25.85 25.34 24.22 19.51 13.17 10.91 3.29 13.4 8.9 30.10 27.13 28.46 27.95 26.83 22.12 15.78 13.52 5.90 2.71 19.7 20.1 Washington D.C. (SW Waterfront) 32.31 29.34 30.67 30.16 29.04 24.33 17.99 15.73 4.92 6.25 5.2 32.85 29.88 31.21 30.70 29.58 24.87 18.53 16.27 8.65 5.46 6.79 3.14 Distance (Miles) Anticipated Travel Times are Result of: Use of more suitable vessel Waiver of no-wake zones

Woodbridge to Washington D.C. (Anacostia Waterfront) Estimated Capital Improvement Costs Capital Cost Woodbridge to Washington D.C. (Anacostia Waterfront) Marshall Hall, MD to Fort Belvoir, VA / Marshall Hall, MD to Washington D.C. (Anacostia Waterfront) Transportation Capital Cost Estimate $19,300,000 $12,300,000 Service Point Capital Cost Estimate $2,500,000 to $10,500,000 $3,400,000 to $8,600,000 Total $21,800,000 to $29,800,000 $15,700,000 to $20,900,000

Fare Box Recoveries and Required Ridership Based on other system fare box recoveries, study team assumed a fare box recovery of 40% would be necessary to consider a ferry service viable Based on estimated operational costs of $3,885,500/year, minimum annual fare collection would be $1,554,200 Average round-trip ferry service fare was set by study team to roughly equal average round-trip VRE service fare. Average round-trip fare for ferry service was set at $11.00/passenger In order to meet minimum annual fare collection requirements, ferry service would be required to provide 280,000 person-trips annually

Comparison of Ferry Service to PRTC & VRE Statistic**** PRTC Commuter Bus Service VRE Commuter Train Service Proposed Ferry Service Annual Operating Cost $12,408,491** $46,192,429* $3,885,000 Annual Fare Revenue $5,641,332* $19,685,561* $1,905,750 Fare Box Recovery Percentage 45.5%** 42.6% 49.1% Annual Operating Subsidy $6,767,159** $26,506,860 $1,979,250 Unlinked Annual Passenger Trips 1,738,556** 3,386,974* 337,838*** Operating Subsidy/Passenger Trip $3.89** $7.83 $5.86 *As published in the National Transit Database ** As provided by PRTC *** 95% of ferry riders assumed to take ferry both to and from work. Remaining 5% assumed to travel only one way on ferry and take alternate transportation home ****Annual Operating Costs, Annual Fare Revenue and Unlinked Annual Passenger Trips for PRTC and VRE are system-wide and not specifically for the Woodbridge to S.E. Washington D.C. trip pairing

Study and Route Proving Exercise Conclusions The commuter ferry service described in this report will require public financial support and be operated in a manner similar to that of PRTC or VRE. Based on the data and analysis contained herein, a public commuter ferry operation has the potential to offer a commuting option to the public that in terms of travel time and service between the area of Occoquan, VA and SE Washington D.C. would be competitive with those commuter services offered by PRTC and VRE. Public commuter ferry service between points in Maryland and Virginia appears to also have real promise given the significant amount of travel time saved as a result of ferry usage No significant noise or wave impacts associated with ferry service are anticipated given the operating parameters specified herein.

Study and RPE Recommendations The process of obtaining speed restriction waivers along the Potomac River should be initiated. A more rigorous market analysis should be undertaken to analyze prospective demand by market in order to account for all the significant variables bearing on usage and estimated ridership diversions by mode. Continued coordination with local governments and military installations that front the Potomac River should be pursued. While commuter ferry service from Prince William County to Washington D.C. appears viable, there is great potential for a ferry operation to serve cross-river commuters between Southern MD and VA. Initial investigations into an authority to oversee ferry operations should also be discussed with those counties and cities that might have an interest in commuter ferry service.