Cloud fraction and Ice Water Content in Various Weather Regimes

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Presentation transcript:

Cloud fraction and Ice Water Content in Various Weather Regimes Malcolm Brooks CloudNET Final Symposium, 12 October 2005 Beeskow, Germany © Crown copyright 2004

Contents Cloud fraction means Categorizing profiles by Met. Regimes Defining Regimes Results Further Applications? eg. Damian Wilson’s talk on Tuesday © Crown copyright 2004

Mean Cloud fraction profiles © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes What criteria to use to define the “background meteorology”? - Vertical velocity (smoothed in time) - Boundary layer stability. Which models will these be obtained from? - “ensemble approach” How will the thresholds be defined? © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes Cloud data Source Observed clouds -0.17 -0.22 -0.23 -0.06 ω data source (Pa s-1) Met Office ECMWF Mean (UKMO, ECMWF) Observed clouds 7+ km -0.17 -0.22 -0.23 0-3 km -0.06 -0.09 -0.07 Met Office clouds -0.16 -0.24 -0.11 -0.19 ECMWF clouds -0.14 -0.41 -0.26 -0.03 -0.12 Correlations between cloud fraction and vertical velocity: Chilbolton, ’99-’00 © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – vertical velocity Not all models are included to define regimes: RACMO – uses ECMWF analyses Met Office Global model – too similar to the Mesoscale model © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – vertical velocity Regime criteria are normalised to account for the different distributions from the different models. © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – vertical velocity ←Neutral tercile Descending tercile → ←Ascending tercile © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – effect of vertical velocity at 500hPa Descending tercile Neutral tercile Ascending tercile © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – boundary layer stability © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – effects of boundary layer stability << Most Stable Stable/Neutral Convective/Neutral Convective >> © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – Combined regimes Vertical Velocity What is it? 750 hPa 300 hPa Down/Neutral Anticyclonic conditions Ascent Low level fronts Ahead of surface fronts, General Ascent! Combined with 3 Boundary layer types, gives 12 combinations! © Crown copyright 2004

Regimes – Combined regimes 300hPa / 750hPa: ↓ / ↓ ↓ / ↑ ↑ / ↓ ↑ / ↑ Convective BL: Neutral BL: Stable BL: © Crown copyright 2004

Application to Met Office Global Data Ascent 300,750 hPa Neutral BL Descent 300,750 hPa Stable BL © Crown copyright 2004

Conclusions Mean model cloud fractions in rough agreement with the observations. Defining Meteorological regimes combining the vertical velocities in the upper and lower troposphere, and boundary layer stability can be a useful tool. eg ECMWF does not over predict cloud in convective boundary layer. The method can be applied beyond single profiles. © Crown copyright 2004