A quick note on the EU referendum Short-term economic effects Fall in sterling and stock markets Upward pressure on interest rates Lower investment & employment Lower tax revenues; pressure to cut spending The Brexit risk for colleges A smaller UK economy by 2020 Rewrite of the 2015 spending review If there’s a fiscal stimulus, likely to be capital The positive Brexit case (the swoosh) New trade deals & less EU regulation Short-term pain for longer-term gain Immigration controls may not help here