Comprehensive Update of the Arkansas Water Plan Water Demand January 2014

Vision – WHAT? Manage water sustainably; support economies, protect public health and natural resources, enhance quality of life. HOW? Appropriate policies and best practices; limited regulation, preservation of private property rights. Mission – comprehensive planning process; conservation, development and protection of the resource for long term sustainable use for health, well being, environmental, and economic benefit

The Major Technical and Planning Elements of the Water Plan Update Final Plan Rulemaking Nov 2014 Regional and Institutional Setting Demand Forecast by Sector Supply Availability Identify Gaps between Available Resource and Demands Issues and Recommendations to Address Shortfalls between Demand and Supply Water Needs forecasted to the Year 2050

Water Demand Sectors Municipal Self-Supplied Domestic Self-Supplied Commercial Industrial Shale Gas Mining Thermoelectric Power Crop Irrigation Livestock Aquaculture Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

Arkansas Statewide Water Demands

Arkansas Statewide Water Demands without Crop Irrigation

Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region

Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region without Crop Irrigation

Basis of Demand Projections Municipal; Self-supplied Domestic; Self-supplied Commercial County population growth rate Industrial; Mining Employment growth rate Shale Gas Work group estimates Thermoelectric Power Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Agency projections of power generation Crop Irrigation County-level trends in irrigated acres by crop type Livestock USDA national livestock projections growth rates Aquaculture; Duck Habitat Remain constant at present levels

Demand Technical Work Group Full Demand Work Group meeting December 17, 2012 Work Group members from each of the demand sectors have completed conference call(s) and had email updates and revisions to the initial methodologies Data availability did results in some “minor” changes to the original approach: Comments and additional research modified the driver (rate and cause of growth) or the water use factor (water use per “unit”) Different data sets have different values for the same or similar years Not all data sets have information for the years desired

Water Demand Sector Municipal Self-Supplied Domestic Self-Supplied Commercial

Municipally-Supplied Demand Forecast Results: Statewide Steady increase in municipally-supplied water demands through 2050 Highest growth - Woods & Poole population projection Lowest growth – Arkansas Natural Resources Commission (ANRC) population projection 2050 water demands range from 449 mgd to 555 mgd Passive conservation reduces demand by 6% in 2050 Base Year to 2050 Percent Growth ANRC: 13% AIEA: 31% Woods & Poole: 40%

County Population Projections: Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement (AIEA)Scenario

Municipal Water Demands by Water Planning Region (AIEA with Conservation)

Self-Supplied Domestic Residential water users not connected to a municipal system (people on individual wells) About 5% of the State’s population Demand driven by population USGS 2010 Report - self-supplied domestic gpcd values range from 80.0 to 98.2 and are different for each county Demand decline due to projected population decrease in counties with self-supplied domestic and passive conservation savings 2050 water demands range from 12.3 mgd to 15.3 mgd

Self-Supplied Domestic Demand by Region

Self-Supplied Commercial Water Demand Forecast

Self-Supplied Commercial Demand by Region

Water Demand Sector Thermoelectric Power Industrial Mining Shale Gas

Thermoelectric Energy Forecast

Thermoelectric Water Demand Forecast Results: Comparison of Withdrawals & Consumption About 99.7% of withdrawals for thermoelectric power generation are from surface water sources 0.3% are small water users typically natural gas with combustion turbine

Thermoelectric Water Demand by Region

Industrial Water Demand Forecast: Results Demand include both municipally-supplied and self-supplied industrial demands Industrial water demands decrease by 31% from Base Year to 2050 Decrease attributed to projected decline in manufacturing employment Demand declines in nearly all counties ↓ 31%

Industrial Water Demand by Region

Mining Water Demand Forecast: Results Forecast includes self-supplied mining demands and municipal water deliveries to mining customers Mining water demands forecasted to increase by 132% from the base year to 2050 Increase in demand is driven by projected increase in mining employment in those counties with base year mining water demands Silica sand, construction sand & gravel, and crushed stone mining are the primary water-using mineral resources in the state Woods Poole Dept. of Workforce Services

Mining Water Demand by Region

Shale Gas Water Demands by Water Planning Region

Water Demand Sectors Livestock Aquaculture Crop Irrigation Livestock Aquaculture Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

Statewide Forecast of Irrigated Acreage

Statewide Irrigation Forecast in Acre-Feet per Year (AFY) 14% increase from 2010-2050 [9.88 million AFY to 11.25 million AFY] 99% of growth experienced by 2030

Crop Irrigation Water Demands by Water Planning Region

Livestock Water Demand Forecast 34% Groundwater 66% Surface Water Growth rate Chickens = 14% Beef Cattle = 5% Hogs and pigs = 11% Dairy cows = decrease a very minor percent

Livestock Water Demand by Water Planning Region

Aquaculture Water Demand Forecast: Results Total base year demands are 103.43 mgd About half is minnow production By regulation, all aquaculture water comes from groundwater sources

Aquaculture Water Demand by Region

Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance: Forecast Duck Hunting Clubs: 64% surface water 36% groundwater Habitat maintenance: 98% surface water 2% groundwater Crop irrigation: 26% surface water 74% groundwater Overall: 60% surface water 40% groundwater and

Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance Water Demands by Water Planning Region

Demand Report Available on the Website Visit the Water Plan Website at: ARWaterPlan.Arkansas.gov Reports (left hand side) Send an e-mail to: ArkansasWater@CDMSmith.com