GCA Grains Week 2002 Food From Thought Brendan Stewart Chairman AWB Limited

2001/02 Market Review Good news: Major reduction in major exporter and world stocks Tighter US balance sheet But: Big increase in production and exports from minor exporters Slow US export demand (slowest sales program since 1976/77)

World Wheat Production and Consumption

China Outlook Remains the major swing factor WTO accession – but Government importing will still only occur when stocks are drawn down Trade Import Forecasts 1.5mmt for 2001/02 3-5mmt for 2002/03 Uncertainty remains regarding the issuing of their tariffs

2002/03 Market Outlook Bullish Factors Lower global stocks (down 10mt to 133mt in 2002/03) Further tightening of US balance sheet Potential North American Hard and Spring Wheat Crop Problems Dryness in Canada Higher Chinese imports Bearish Factors Big increase in production in major 5 exporters Continued competition from non-traditional exporters – particularly India Greater competition leading to smaller US sales program Better crops in the Middle East – lower imports

Political Factors Impact Market Agricultural policies of the US and the EU still affecting the market Subsidies remove farmers from market signals which leads to oversupply Oversupply helps depress prices – Chicago Wheat Futures

US & EU Agricultural Protectionism US and EU Governments pay out more than A$1 billion per day on subsidies for their farmers – Australian treasury cannot compete US considering new US$170 billion farm bill and EU looking to expand Must seek for a fairer and more equitable trade system through the WTO WTO has its own challenges: EU looking to introduce environmental rules also using the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to establish a system that by-passes WTO to restrict trade

Conclusion Single Desk system a critical counterpoint for growers against the vagaries and distortions of the world market Single Desk only provides real value when it represents a complete chain – from inside the farm gate right through to the international customer Real value comes from having a single grower controlled organisation managing and capturing value along the grain supply chain AWB constitution commits us to maximise returns for growers who deliver to the Pool – BHCs do not have this commitment Proposed changes set us on a slippery slope towards deregulation at the growers expense