Overview of the IAEA’s Modelling and Data for Environmental Impact Assessment (MODARIA II) Programme Plenary Meeting of the Network on  Environmental  Management and Remediation (ENVIRONET) Vienna, Austria, 1 November 2018 T.L. Yankovich Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety

At the highest level of the IAEA Safety Standards: The Safety Fundamentals state that: “The fundamental safety objective is to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation.” AND it is necessary to do so over the entire life cycle of nuclear facilities and activities, and practices.

Demonstration of Protection through Characterization and Modelling: In order to demonstrate protection and safety of people and the environment: Conceptual models need to be developed to qualitatively describe the radionuclide sources and exposure pathways. Based on these conceptual models, mathematical models (or “quantitative site models”) are needed to quantify radionuclide transport and exposure. Model outcomes can then be used to identify possible options to address hazards and risk. These options can then be weighed out, along with the outputs of more qualitative preference models, and can serve as input to decision-makers to identify possible path-forward, taking account of desires and expectations of “interested parties”. IAEA has established international model validation programs to systematically test international modelling approaches.

These programs consist of multiple Working Groups. MOdelling and DAta for Radiological Impact Assessment (MODARIA I and II): Objectives Improve capabilities in radiological impact assessment Test, compare and develop models Analyse, evaluate and compile data Assessments in planned, emergency and existing exposure situations For people For the environment Develop harmonized assessment tools Support to meet regulatory requirements Provide a forum for exchange of experiences and knowledge These programs consist of multiple Working Groups.

MODARIA I Working Groups (WGs): Theme 1: Remediation of Contaminated Areas WG 1 — Remediation strategies and decision aiding techniques WG 2 — Exposures in urban environments and effect of remedial measures WG 3 — Radiological impacts from NORM and legacy sites and remediation Theme 2: Uncertainties and Variability WG 4 — Analysis of radio-ecological data WG 5 — Uncertainty from routine discharges of radionuclides WG 6 — Environmental modelling for radioactive waste disposal facilities WG 7 — Models for accidental tritium releases Theme 3: Exposures and Effects on Biota WG 8 — Transfer and exposure models for flora and fauna WG 9 — Effects on populations of wildlife species Theme 4: Marine Modelling WG 10 — Dispersion and transfer in the marine environment

Objectives of MODARIA I WG1: Analyze the decision-aiding process based on experience gained from past radiological emergencies and remediation efforts (e.g., post Chernobyl; legacy sites, decommissioning) Extract lessons learned in terms of social, economic and environmental costs Review and compare existing decision-aiding models Prepare case studies for comparison of decision- aiding models Provide recommendations on how to improve the decision-aiding process for remediation planning. A key focus was to evaluate multi-criteria decision analysis and preference modelling approaches as decision-aiding tools.

Objectives of MODARIA I WG1: Analyze the decision-aiding process based on experience gained from past radiological emergencies and remediation efforts (e.g., post Chernobyl; legacy sites, decommissioning) Extract lessons learned in terms of social, economic and environmental costs Review and compare existing decision-aiding models Prepare case studies for comparison of decision- aiding models Provide recommendations on how to improve the decision-aiding process for remediation planning. Focused on interrelationship between “technical” modelling and “preference” modelling, as inputs to decision-making. A key focus was to evaluate multi-criteria decision analysis and preference modelling approaches as decision-aiding tools.

Objectives of MODARIA I WG3: To develop scenarios and compare predictions made by Member States using models and modelling approaches to gain further understanding of: Legacy sites NORM and uranium facilities Developing safety cases and conducting safety assessments for facilities A software tool (“NORMALYSA”) has been developed by WG3 and is being tested. In addition, training is being provided on application of the NORMALYSA tool. MODARIA I WG1 and MODARIA I WG3 have been merged to form MODARIA II WG1.

Objectives of MODARIA I WG3: To develop scenarios and compare predictions made by Member States using models and modelling approaches to gain further understanding of: Legacy sites NORM and uranium facilities Developing safety cases and conducting safety assessments for facilities A software tool (“NORMALYSA”) has been developed by WG3 and is being tested. In addition, training is being provided on application of the NORMALYSA tool. Focused on detailed modelling of radionuclide fate and corresponding exposure in complex situations. MODARIA I WG1 and MODARIA I WG3 have been merged to form MODARIA II WG1.

MODARIA II: Working Groups Working Group 1 - Assessment and Decision Making of Existing Exposure Situations for NORM and Nuclear Legacy Sites Working Group 2 - Assessment of Exposures and Countermeasures in Urban Environments Working Group 3 - Assessments and Control of Exposures to the Public and Biota for Planned Releases to the Environment Working Group 4 - Transfer Processes and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Working Group 5 - Exposure and Effects to Biota Working Group 6 - Biosphere Modelling for Long Term Safety Assessments of High Level Waste Disposal Facilities Working Group 7 - Assessment of Fate and Transport of Radionuclides Released in the Marine Environment

MODARIA II Working Group 1: Member State Participation WG1 IAEA Scientific Secretary: Tamara Yankovich WG1 Leader: Ming Zhu (USA)

MODARIA II WG1: Work Scope WG 1: Assessment and Decision Making of Existing Exposure Situations for NORM and Nuclear Legacy Sites Methods and tools for radiological impact assessments and application to specific situations Methodologies for decision analyses for remediation and closure of NORM and legacy sites Communication and engagement with relevant interested parties Training for end users for the use of the relevant software

Sites Selected for Case Studies: Grote Laak Winterbeek Zapadnoe Uranium Tailings Site Ukraine Tessenderlo Phosphate Processing Site Belgium São Paulo Former Tin Facility Brazil Testing of international tools for remediation decision-making.

Sites Selected as Examples for Good Practices and Lessons Learned Material Disposal Area B Los Alamos National Laboratory USA Beaverlodge Mine/Mill Site Canada International good practice and lessons learned.

Further information on MODARIA II (and earlier programs): YOU can JOIN Web-link: https://www-ns.iaea.org/projects/modaria/modaria2.asp?s=8&l=129

Collaborations/Leveraging Within MODARIA II: WG5: Biota modeling WG3: Human-biota modeling WG6: BIOPROTA/BIOMASS-6 Within the IAEA: ENVIRONET (RICOMET, CIDER, DERES) ICRP Task Groups 98 and 105 IAEA Le-Trench Project External: Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) International Conference on Engineering Materials and Metallurgy (ICEMM) Conferences: NRPA 2017, WM2018, WM2019

MODARIA II WG1 Further Information: Thank you for your attention! Ming.Zhu@em.doe.gov (WG1 Chair) T.Yankovich@IAEA.org (IAEA Scientific Secretary) Thank you for your attention!