Predictors Observed rainfall up to May.

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Presentation transcript:

Predictors Observed rainfall up to May. Predicted JJA rainfall forecast in May ECHAM 4.5 hindcast psst (1968-2001). Predictands Simulated wheat yield. JJASO rainfall. Cross-validation (34 years available) Select 30 years for training. 2 independent years for model selection. 2 independent years for skill estimate. 200 random selections.

Predictor: JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF Predictand: Shire wheat yield 1 EOF Cross-validated Anomaly correlation Time-series (no CV)

Predictor: JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF Predictand: Shire wheat yield 1 EOF Cross-validated Anomaly correlation Time-series (no CV)

Predictor: JJA precip forecast May 1 EOF Predictand: Shire rainfall 2 EOFs Cross-validated Anomaly correlation Time-series (no CV)