HIV prevalence in Jakarta, Indonesia, with and without IDUs Actual data to 2003, and projections with behaviour unchanged from 2003 levels Most sexual infections in Jakarta would never have occurred if there had not been a “seed” infection transmitted through drug injection 120000 108,296 100000 80000 Sexual infections resulting from a chain of infection originating with a needle Cumulative number of HIV infections 60000 40000 35,850 20000 2,049 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 HIV infections if nothing changes HIV infections in IDUs if nothing changes HIV infections if there were no IDU epidemic Source: Elizabeth Pisani, using Asian Epidemic Model Fig 40. AIDS in Asia, Face the Facts. 2004 MAP Report