Collection of Command and Control Exercise Data Mark Ashforth Dstl Information Management Dept Portsdown West

Contents Background Iterative development of a model Plan for data collection at a real exercise Application of data to model Conclusions from exercise experience Conclusions from the study Recommendations 27 February 2019

Background - Current Situation Perception that not enough use is made of exercises as sources of data Data collection at exercises is ad hoc and generally not well coordinated C2 Modelling, especially V&V, perceived “too difficult” C2 Activities and processes not well understood 27 February 2019

Model-Test-Model Paradigm 27 February 2019

Iterative Development of a C2 Model Model elements & parameters Hypothesise C2 model Model elements & parameters Define data needed to validate hypothetical model Propose new model elements Data definitions Fail Attend exercise & collect data Pass: validated model Test model hypotheses Raw data Ordered data Analyse data collected 27 February 2019

Planned Data Collection Procedure Attend exercise & collect data Analyse data collected Hypothesise C2 model Define data needed to validate hypothetical model Raw data Data definitions Model elements & parameters Ordered data Report 27 February 2019

Exercise SAIF SAREEA II AIM “To deploy, sustain, exercise and recover a medium scale warfighting Joint Task Force at strategic distance into a key strategic area, as identified in the SDR. (In order to demonstrate the JRRF Concept.)” 27 February 2019

Typical deployed HQ at Saif Sareea 27 February 2019

Ex SAIF SAREEA II Reasons for failure to attend in person: Timing of funding Difficulty of defining data requirement No willing military sponsor in field 27 February 2019

Actual v Planned Collection Procedure Attend exercise & collect data Analyse data collected Hypothesise C2 model Define data needed to validate hypothetical model Raw data Data definitions Model elements & parameters Ordered data Report Report Model elements & parameters Attend exercise & collect data where possible Analyse data collected Hypothesise C2 model Define data needed to validate hypothetical model Haphazard raw data Examples of application to OODA Identify and brief ‘second-hand’ analysts Data definitions Analysts with interpretation of goal 27 February 2019

Example use of data Time taken to access information: Access to information Access to IT tools/ equipment Speed of access to information 27 February 2019

The ‘OODA Loop’ - a typical C2 model Orient Decide Observe Act Col John Boyd USAF 27 February 2019

Using the SS2 Data in OODA Observe Orient Act Decide Time to access strategic planning info Time to access mission doctrine Intelligence 27 February 2019

Conclusions from Ex SS2 “Real-life” problems - things do not run smoothly Need for military sponsorship of longer-term research data support - our own experience Demonstration of applicability of data to OODA loop model 27 February 2019

Study Conclusions The importance of models to OA The nature of C2 The importance of exercises as sources Analyst attendance at exercises The need for effective data gathering 27 February 2019

Recommendations Plan to exploit each exercise Data Collection Planning Model elements & parameters Hypothesise C2 model Model elements & parameters Define data needed to validate hypothetical model Propose new model elements Data Collection Planning Data definitions Fail Attend exercise & collect data Pass: validated model Test model hypotheses Raw data Ordered data Analyse data collected 27 February 2019

Recommendations Plan to exploit each exercise Identify the rationale for exercise exploitation Ensure coherence of exercise exploitation with studies and other research Collect data in accord with Dstl’s Data Collection Strategy Ensure that exploitation of exercises is authoritatively supported by MOD Gain the support of exercise commanders in the field Exploit or create working-level coordination in exercise exploitation 27 February 2019

Questions? 27 February 2019