P(benchange) – (1-P)(costfailed change) > benstatusquo

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Presentation transcript:

P(benchange) – (1-P)(costfailed change) > benstatusquo Will (Governance) Reform proceed? BENEFITS TO STAKEHOLDERS BENEFITS TO STAKEHOLDERS OF CHANGE OF STATUS QUO PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS DESIGN OF REFORM POLITICS, SOCIETY AND INSTITUTIONS

POLITICAL DRIVERS OF REFORM Exogenous variables Institutional depth: longevity, predictability, legitimacy, flexibility Composition of governing elites: influence of property-owning or ethnic elites Diversity of civil society Characteristics of political parties Reform design options Sequencing, timing and pace of reform Monitorability of reform Mixed (exogenous/design) Technical capacity of bureaucracy Extent of decentralization