Earth Climate System Model of INM RAS

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Presentation transcript:

Earth Climate System Model of INM RAS Volodin E.M. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Moscow volodinev@gmail.com

Climate model includes 2 main blocks: Atmospheric dynamics Oceanic dynamics It can also include other blocks: 3. Carbon cycle 4. Aerosol block 5. Atmospheric chemistry 6. Some electric phenomena 7. Ice sheet model. 8. Upper atmosphere (ionosphere) dynamics

Main model configurations: Crude resolution: atmosphere 5x4 degrees L21, ocean 2.5x2 degrees L33. Was used for CMIP3 (2003-2004). Now is used for coupling with ice sheet models and for the purpose of education. Intermediate resolution: Atmosphere 2x1.5 L21, ocean 1x0.5 L40. Was used for CMIP5 (2010-2011). Atmosphere 2x1.5 L73, ocean 0.5x0.25 L40. Is planed to use for CMIP6 (2016-2018). Fine resolution: Atmosphere 1.25x1 L73 or L128, ocean 1/6x1/8, or 1/8x1/12 L40. Mainly for future

List of CMIP5 models

“Long” runs of CMIP5

Quality of CMIP5 models (IPCC-5, Chapter 9)

Similarity of CMIP5 models (Knutti et al, 2013)

Equilibrium climate sensitivity and feedback parameter in CMIP5 models

Площадь арктического льда в сентябре в модели INMCM4

Площадь арктического льда в сентябре в прединдустриальном эксперименте

Density anomaly. Year 0

Density anomaly. Year 5.

Density anomaly. Year 10.

Density anomaly. Year 15.

Density anomaly. Year 20.

PDO in INMCM4

Absorption of CO2 by ocean and land in 1850-1994 (Hoffmann et al, 2014)

Annual mean precipitation GPCC(OBS) INMCM4 REGCM4 HADrm3P

Annual mean surface temperature error, INMCM4 (CMIP5)

Annual mean surface temperature error, INMCM5 (CMIP6)

Plans for CMIP6 Basic experiments: Preindustrial (500 years), 4*CO2, historical, 2-3 scenarios up to 2100. 2. Experiments with interactive carbon cycle. 3. 5 or 10 year predictions with real initial state 4. Paleoclimate. 5. Ice sheet intercomparison project. 6. Sea ice model intercomparison project. Points 2-6 can be done if only we will have enough computer facility.