Detroiters worried by 22% rise in homicides Other cities across nation show drops BY BEN SCHMITT and AMBER HUNT April 14, 2006 http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2006604140365

Increase in Number of Detroit Homicides As of Tuesday, the number of homicides recorded in Detroit this year was 106, a 22% increase over the 87 reported by police during the same time last year. Nonfatal shootings are up as well, with 337 compared with 280 last year. Those statistics alarmed city officials and police personnel as other major municipalities across America -- including Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and Washington, D.C. -- have seen a drop in killings. Los Angeles, for instance, has a 19% decrease through April 8 with 109 homicides. Chicago has logged 87 homicides so far, down from 100 at this time last year.

Reaction Detroit Police Chief Ella Bully-Cummings said Thursday the numbers are "a huge red flag for me." She said a reduction in the number of police may have had an impact. She also said high unemployment, illiteracy rates and the prevalence of guns play roles. "It would be disingenuous if I told you a reduction of manpower in the department doesn't have an effect fighting crime, because it does," Bully-Cummings said. "But we've done a tremendous job over the last couple of years. Even with losing close to 1,000 officers in last 4 1/2 years, we've been able to keep crime down." Last year, Detroit had 374 homicides, compared with 384 the year before that. While that ranks among the most in cities across the nation, it's still far lower than the 714 homicides of 1974, when Detroit acquired the nickname Murder City.

Trends over time

Crime Rates for Large Cities

Determinants of a New Crime Rise? Worse economic indicators? Diversion of police to terror-related activities? Resurgence of new violent drug markets? Diffusion of guns? Reduced revenue to state and local govts? Net decline in incarceration growth? More young people? Source: Blumstein: http://samoa.istat.it/Eventi/sicurezza/relazioni/Blumstein_rel.pdf