Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Forecasting Ceilings in EVENTS Meteorology 415 Fall 2012.

Advertisements

Assessment of Thirty Year Fog Climatology in Wichita Forecast Area By: Matthew Harding, Butler Community College, El Dorado, Kansas Kenneth Cook, Science.

First Results of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts in Croatia Jadran Jurković and Igor Kos Croatia control Ltd, MET Division.

$500 What is 30 degrees? A change in wind speed to over/under 12 knots and more than X degrees direction change requires amendment. $500 What is a Wind.

Interpreting TAF Verification Statistics: The Impact of TEMPO Forecasts (Corrected May 21, 2007) Chuck Kluepfel National Weather Service Headquarters Silver.

GOES-R Fog/Low Stratus (FLS) IFR Probability Product.

Lead Time Aviation Verification Onset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports NWS Aviation.

Forecasting Thunderstorms in Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) Some new insights Steven Thompson National Weather Service (NWS) La Crosse, WI.

Warm Up. Lesson 54, Displaying Data in a Box-and- Whisker Plot Probability and Statistics.

RADIATION FOG STUDY. Office Stats 00z ELM TAF 00z ELM TAF POD for FG – 0.53 POD for FG – 0.53 FAR – 0.55 FAR – z ELM TAF 06z ELM TAF POD for FG.

Strategies to Improve Radiation Fog Forecasting at Elmira, NY (KELM) Robert Mundschenk, Michael Evans, Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr., and Ron Murphy – WFO Binghamton,

1 Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP): Improvements to convective forecasts in response to user feedback Judy E. Ghirardelli National.

Aviation Verification and Convection Chris Leonardi WFO RLX August 31, 2005.

EXAMPLE 1 Make a box-and-whisker plot SONG LENGTHS The lengths of songs (in seconds) on a CD are listed below. Make a box-and-whisker plot of the song.

METAR/TAF The International Weather Code

Probabilistic forecasts of (severe) thunderstorms for the purpose of issuing a weather alarm Maurice Schmeits, Kees Kok, Daan Vogelezang and Rudolf van.

Verification of a Blowing Snow Model and Applications for Blizzard Forecasting Jeff Makowski, Thomas Grafenauer, Dave Kellenbenz, Greg Gust National Weather.

Box and Whisker Plots/Graphs Used to show data Broken up into 4 quarters or quartiles. Uses a number line Need to find 5 numbers in order to create.

New statistical approach for hail storm nowcasting: case study of severe thunderstorm developed on 28 June 2007 over northeast Bulgaria Boryana Markova.

Summer WAS*IS 2006 National Weather Service Verification Program Overview Brenton MacAloney II National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD.

Quality Assessment - National Ceiling and Visibility (NCV) Analysis (now, not forecast) Product Tressa L. Fowler, Matthew J. Pocernich, Jamie T. Braid,

Latest results in verification over Poland Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw 9th COSMO General.

Continued… Obj: draw Box-and-whisker plots representing a set of data Do now: use your calculator to find the mean for 85, 18, 87, 100, 27, 34, 93, 52,

Quantitative data. mean median mode range  average add all of the numbers and divide by the number of numbers you have  the middle number when the numbers.

6.8 Compare Statistics from Samples MM1D3a: Compare summary statistics (mean, median, quartiles, and interquartile range) from one sample data distribution.

Box and Whisker Plots Measures of Central Tendency.

Sample Box-and-Whisker Plot lower extreme, or minimum value 1st quartile, the median of the lower half of the data set 2nd quartile, the median of the.

Mathematical Studies for the IB Diploma Second Edition © Hodder & Stoughton Ltd Box and whisker plots.

Box and Whisker Plots. Introduction: Five-number Summary Minimum Value (smallest number) Lower Quartile (LQ) Median (middle number) Upper Quartile (UP)

Summer Tornadoes – NWA 2015 Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM) (Hart & Cohen, 2015) SPC Mesoanalysis Data Every hour from

The LAMP/HRRR MELD FOR AVIATION FORECASTING Bob Glahn, Judy Ghirardelli, Jung-Sun Im, Adam Schnapp, Gordana Rancic, and Chenjie Huang Meteorological Development.

Box Plots March 20, th grade. What is a box plot? Box plots are used to represent data that is measured and divided into four equal parts. These.

Foundations of Math I: Unit 3 - Statistics Arithmetic average Median: Middle of the data listed in ascending order (use if there is an outlier) Mode: Most.

Unit 4: Probability Day 4: Measures of Central Tendency and Box and Whisker Plots.

Box and Whisker Plots Example: Comparing two samples.

Lesson 3.4 Box-and-Whisker Plots

Box and Whisker Plots. Vocabulary To make a box and whisker plot, we break the data in quartiles. The ________________ _________________ is the median.

Aviation Products from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Judy E. Ghirardelli National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory Presented.

Box and Whisker Plots or Boxplots

Box and Whisker Plots and the 5 number summary

Box and Whisker Plots and the 5 number summary

Find the lower and upper quartiles for the data set.

Box Plots EQ: How do you analyze box plots?

Warm Up Convert to degrees a) 3

Lesson 6.7: Box-and-Whisker Plots

Lesson 13.8 Interpret Box-and-Whisker Plots

Box and Whisker Plots 50% Step 1 – Order the series.

COSMO-LEPS Verification

Constructing Box Plots

Box and Whisker Plots 50% Step 1 – Order the series.

Box-And-Whisker Plots

Box and Whisker Plots 50% Step 1 – Order the series.

Bellwork 4/24 A students’ test scores on 6 tests were; 84, 76, 80, 64, 92, and 84. Find the average test score.

An Update to the Convective Wind Climatology of

Box-and-Whisker Plots

12.4 Box-and-Whisker Plots

Box-and-Whisker Plots

Box-And-Whisker Plots

Box and Whisker Plots.

Box and Whisker Plots 50% Step 1 – Order the series.

A climatology of freezing precipitation over the Ukraine and Moldova

Warm-Up Define mean, median, mode, and range in your own words. Be ready to discuss.

Box and Whisker Plots Meow.

Box and Whisker Plots and the 5 number summary

Box and Whisker Wkst Use this for #

Statistics Vocab Notes

Tukey Box Plots Review.

Ch. 12 Vocabulary 15.) quartile 16.) Interquartile range

Short Range Ensemble Prediction System Verification over Greece

Presentation transcript:

Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology Mary-Beth Schreck, L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook

Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow Thunderstorm Climatologies in Various Forms Fog Climatologies Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Thunderstorms Verification Suffers in Summer

Give forecasters some probabilities of occurrence based on climatology Goal Since convective season is when verification suffers (cig/vsby): Give forecasters some probabilities of occurrence based on climatology

Process and Results For the 30 year period ending 2006, found all observations with TS for April – August for KRSL, KSLN, KICT, KCNU From these, found # of occurrences (hours) for each station for the following visibility categories (SM): <0.5 0.5 – <1.0 1.0 - <2.0 2.0 - <3.0 3.0 – 5.0 >5.0 Found % of each category (i.e. How many times does each occur) as % of total of all TSRA Fog obs These were done for each station for each month This is a real mind bender.

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results At this point, we have isolated TS obs that contain a MVFR or lower visibility. Using these data we then determined how many of these contained a MVFR or lower ceiling. These were plotted as a percentage of the total number of TS obs w/ MVFR vsby (i.e. with a ceiling) More drilling down.

Process and Results

Process and Results Out of these (the ceilings that are below 3000 ft.): Found maximum, minimum, 1st and 3rd quartiles for each visibility category by station by month. Plotted results as “box and whiskers” plot More drilling down.

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Process and Results

Conclusions Visibilities gradually increased through the season By July: 75-80% of TS obs had visibilities >5SM. TS w/ MVFR or lower visibilities that contained a MVFR ceiling also decreased through the season. By July, it was a statistically “rare” event to have MVFR ceiling and visibility with a thunderstorm.