Lovro Kalin (thanks to Tomislava Hojsak, Tanja Renko) Verification of warnings at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ) Lovro Kalin (thanks to Tomislava Hojsak, Tanja Renko)

Verification of warnings increasing importance in NMSs (major role?) public civil protection, MeteoAlarm (high/low 2mT, heavy rain, thunderstorms, winds, fog, icing, flash floods) heat waves, cold waves forest fires...

Verification of warnings warnings verification – relatively new and complex nonhomogenous data (forecasts) lot of noise (contaminated by non-meteorological predictors) spurious methods, scoring... thresholds, impact, cost-loss...?

Verification of warnings warnings verification results – contingency tables

warnings - MeteoAlarm 8 regions (represented by major cities) high/low 2mT, heavy rain, thunderstorms, winds, fog, icing, flash floods (Hydrology division) 2 days in advance (plan to 4 days) very good public reception (MeteoAlarm=DHMZ?)

warnings - MeteoAlarm

warnings - MeteoAlarm

warnings – heat waves in cooperation with Ministry of health based on Tmin and Tmax (4 days in advance) Green, Yellow, Orange and Red very good public response system oversensitive (thresholds too narrow)

heat waves

warnings – forest fires Fire Weather Index not sufficient – too many ‘very high’ classes special warnings issued internally to Fire Headquarter based on additional criteria (passage of ‘dry’ front, high Haines index, TKE etc.) this season – cca 15 warnings still not clear how to use it

warnings – forest fires Comparison of number of forecasted and observed cases for each danger class

special fire danger warnings due to hot and dry seasons – FWI always high need for additional info (warnings for exceptionally high danger are introduced) Based on: Haines index passage of „dry” cold front TKE

warnings – forest fires

Final Warnings developing area, new products introduced good reception by the public and customers still, lot of improvement needed criteria (impact) verification (methods, data)