ND Weekly Drought Update

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Presentation transcript:

ND Weekly Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 4/19/2018

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings Winter 2017-18: December-February March 2018 1” 123th 0.66” 117th 0.12” 82nd 0.94” 122th 0.59” 111th 0.71” 111th 0.21” 89th 0.54” 108th 0.92” 112th Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (124 years total).

Divisional Temperature Anomalies and Rankings Winter 2017-18: December-February March 2018 -0.8F 56th 1.3F 75th 2.4F 85th -0.4F 60th 0.6F 71st 0.5F 71st -0.7F 53rd 0.2F 69th 0F 68th Negative numbers indicate cooler than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically cooler conditions on record (124 years total).

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) D1 39% (-4%) None 35% (+18%) DO 65% (-18%)

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Change One-week Change 4-week Change

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 104 (-25) *Drought Severity and Coverage Index = DOx1+D1x2+D2x3+D3x4+D4x5 *Akyuz (2007)

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 8573 (+104) 9,530 10,642 9653 19,319 2116 1714 *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal Bare Soil Temperature at 4” Depth (20mm = 0.8”)

7-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, Apr 19 through Thu 1am, Apr 26 *College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

14-day GFS Forecast* Thu 1am, Apr 19 through Thu 1am, May 3 *College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab (Displayed with permission)

Medium Range Forecast Week 3-4 Precipitation Week 3-4 Temperature

3-Mounth Outlook: June-August Precipitation Temperature