Agriculture in the Netherlands Baseline projection 2020 Martha M. van Eerdt RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency October 8, 2003 Brussels

Projection objectives Make most likely projection of developments in livestock numbers and fertilising regime until 2020 Extra Include implemented and adopted measures Pay ample attention to sensitivity of results to uncertain developments Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Policy instruments and economic development EU Nitrate Directive and national policies on manure EU policy on milk quota EU policy on animal welfare Economic development Not included: recent CAP reform (milk quota, decoupling) extension of EU-15 post Kyoto policies Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Choice of key assumptions Base year: 2000 Nitrogen manure standards: acceptable losses from mineral accounting system (MINAS) grassland: 20 kg P2O5 and (180)140 kg N per hectare on (less) vulnerable soils arable land: 25 kg P2O5 and (100) 60 kg N per hectare on (less) vulnerable soils manure transfer contract system grassland: 250 kg N per hectare arable land: 170 kg N per hectare Willingness of arable farmers to accept manure Export and manure treatment: 25 Kton N Increase milk quota: 0,6% after 2010 Increase milk productivity: 1,8% per year until 2010, thereafter1,3% per year Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Development livestock numbers Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Projection of the fertilising regime Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Ammonia emission from agriculture Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Uncertainties in animal numbers High baseline projection dairy cattle +7% pigs and poultry + 16% Low baseline projection dairy cattle - 7% pigs - 20% poultry - 27% Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020

Manure policy reduces animal numbers and amount of fertiliser used Conclusions Manure policy reduces animal numbers and amount of fertiliser used Uncertainties due to policy changes are greater than uncertainties due to economic developments Include reviews in projections Martha M. van Eerdt Baseline projection 2020