Cases, Challenges, Solutions VOLATILITY IN ATM Cases, Challenges, Solutions Alexander Hanslik Austro Control Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
What‘s the problem? Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
Traffic development is extremely volatile ACC Level Sector Level (B5-South) Day Month Day Weekday NM Forecast 12/2016 Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
types of reasons for traffic variation Industry related ATM system capacity related Operations related Competitive dynamics Stimulation of demand, regional booms and declines Airlines planning cycles become shorter Systemic regional capacity shortages Ad hoc Regional capacity shortages Climate change enhances weather impact Airlines file suboptimal routes Airlines do not always fly as they file/flight plan adherence MIL activity Disruptive events such as … Geopolitical impacts (Ukraine, Syria, Qatar, … , fuel price, … ) „SARS“ and the like Eyjafjallajökull Industrial action … Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
is traffic variation predictable? – long term view 7-year STATFOR Forecast vs. 2017 (FIR) RP2-Forecast vs. 2017 for FAB CE (FIR) Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
is traffic variation predictable? – short term view ACC / Daily Forecast We must live with volatility Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
Operational capacity measures - flexbility System Personnel Airspace Design/Procedure/ Sectorization Long-term Multi Sector Ratings Buffer Planning Short-term Ad-hoc Overtime Shift Changes Flexible Position Planning Long-term COOPANS/State-of-the-Art System Short-term Fixed Long-term FRA (SECSI) Short-term LOA Amendments STAM (Minimizing Regulations) Flexible Sector Opening Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
For Instance – Flexible sector planning Flexibility Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
Regulation: we need flexibility Rigidity – No Compromise Safety (SMS Maturity) Flexibility Environment (Horizontal Flight Efficiency) Capacity (Delay per Flight) Cost (Real Unit Cost) Targets need to be managed more dynamically Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu
28/02/2019 www.fab-ce.eu
WXR pictures and Flight-Tracks
FAB CE study: how airlines actually fly Madrid, March 6th, 2018 www.fab-ce.eu