Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment

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Presentation transcript:

Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010

Outline Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds Implementation Plan Current Assessment Current Actions Comparison to Last Assessment January 29, 2010

Minimum Adequacy Thresholds Energy – Annual Load/Resource Balance* Physical = 0 MWa Economic = ??? Capacity – Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin* Physical Winter = 23% Physical Summer = 24% Economic = ??? *As defined in the Adequacy Standard January 29, 2010

Implementation Plan Green Status Yellow Alert Red Alert Proceed with normal planning activities Compare results with other regional reports Yellow Alert Regional report Forum review of data and assumptions Red Alert Regional conference Regional review of data and assumptions Identify inadequate utilities January 29, 2010

Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys January 29, 2010

Annual Energy Load/Resource Balance January 29, 2010

January Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin

July Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin January 29, 2010

Assessing the Adequacy Status (Year when threshold is violated) Energy 2027 January Capacity 2030 July Capacity 2015 January 29, 2010

Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys July Capacity Violation 5 Years Out = Yellow Alert January 29, 2010

Current Actions RPS legislation is pushing wind development Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2029 (on average) Forum will review data and methodology January 29, 2010

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment Annual Energy L/R Bal (MWa) 3-Years Out 5-Years Out Min ‘08 Assessment (2013) 2,701 1,996 ‘10 Assessment (2015) 4,651 3,958 Difference 1,950 1,962 January 29, 2010

Annual Energy Assumptions 5-Years Out Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 23508 22484 -1024 Net Resources 25504 26442 938 L/R Balance 1996 3958 1962 January 29, 2010

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment January Capacity Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin 3-Yrs Out 5-Yrs Out Min ’08 Assessment (2013) 46% 40% 23% ’10 Assessment (2015) 50% 47% Difference 4% 7% January 29, 2010

January Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5-Years Out Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 29972 29473 -499 Net Resources 41842 43300 1458 Reserve Margin 40% 47% +7% January 29, 2010

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment July Capacity Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin 3-Yrs Out 5-Yrs Out Min ’08 Assessment (2013) 34% 29% 24% ’10 Assessment (2015) 27% Difference -7% -5% January 29, 2010

July Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5-Years Out Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 27075 29361 2286 Net Resources 35297 36379 1082 Reserve Margin 29% 24% -5% January 29, 2010