SPEC Barometer Results QUARTER 3 OCTOBER 2009 Prepared by: Synovate Kenya Date: 17th Oct 2009

Survey background The Social, Political, Economic and Cultural Barometer (SPEC) is conducted every three months by the Steadman Group (Now Synovate). The main objective of this particular survey is to assess the general public opinion on several political and social issues. The survey assessed the following issues: Government performance Public Trust in various public institutions and personalities Performance of the various public personalities Evaluation of the power-sharing agreement Political party alignment and several correlations of same The Marriage Bill

Poll Methodology Dates of polling October 5th – October 13th 2,005 respondents Sample Size Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Victims of Crime

“Have you personally been subjected to any form of criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Total Base: n= 20000 (All Respondents)

“Have you personally been subjected to any form of criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Time Series Base: n= 2000 (All Respondents)

(If yes) “How many times?” Base: Those who are subjected to criminal incident

“Have you personally been subjected to any form of criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Total – What type of crime?

Government Service/Sector Area Performance Ratings

“How satisfied are you with the way the Government is dealing with the issues facing our country?” Base: All Respondents

Trust and Approval Ratings of Top Leaders and Institutions

“How much trust you have in each of the following people or institutions?” % ‘saying a lot of trust’ Base n=2000 (All Respondents)

% saying a highly disapprove “To what extent do you approve of the overall performance of…?” % saying a highly disapprove Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

the Power-Sharing Agreement Attitudes Towards: the Power-Sharing Agreement

Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga. By Total Base: All Respondents

% “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: Time Series % “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Base: All Respondents

Political Party Alignment

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?” Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”: Time series Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

Political Party Alignment Correlations

% “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by Total, Political party affiliations % “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit” Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by Political Party Alignment Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

“What do you think should be done to bring permanent peace in the country?”: by Political Party Alignment Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

“To what extent do you approve the overall performance of The President?” by Political Party Alignment. Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

“To what extent do you approve the overall performance of The Prime Minister?” by Political Party Alignment. Base: All Respondents

“To what extent do you approve the overall performance of The Vice President?” by Political Party Alignment. Base: All Respondents

Preferred (Possible) Presidential Candidate in Next Election

“If an election for president was held now, who would you vote for, if that person were a candidate?” by PPA Base: All Respondents

“If an election for president was held now, who would you vote for, if that person was a candidate?” – Time Series Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

What recent action was taken by US government against impunity in Kenya? By Total

“Do you approve or disapprove the act of the US government?” Base: Those aware of the action taken by the US Government.

Poll Methodology The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,005 respondents was drawn to achieve a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. At the same time this sample size is large enough to administer strict quality control measures in order to manage any occurrence of non-random errors. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 5th and 13th October. To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 53 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya (Nairobi, Nyandarua, Kiambu, Maragua, Muranga, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Mombasa, Malindi,Taita Taveta, Embu, Mbeere, Meru Central, Meru North, Nithi, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Bondo, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Migori, Rachuonyo, Siaya, Kisii North – Nyamira, Kisii Central, Kisii South-Gucha, Barigo, Bomet, Buret, Kajiado, Kericho, Laikipia, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, West Pokot, Kirinyaga, Turkana, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Marakwet, Butere-Mumias, Bugoma, Kakamega, Lugari, Vihiga,Teso). The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

Poll Methodology (Cont…) These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

About Steadman Steadman Group is Africa’s leading market information group with over 400 permanent employees and with access to more than 5000 trained field staff in different markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Group is composed of three divisions which offer media monitoring services, market research and management training. Steadman also runs the Steadman Centre For Applied Research Training. The Steadman Group socio research unit carries out all the fieldwork logistics, data processing and reporting tasks of this survey. This unit has vast experience in conducting opinion polls since 2002. The Group is a full member of Gallup International Association and its exclusive affiliate in Kenya. Additionally, the Group is also a member of World Association for Public Opinion Research [WAPOR] and the association of market research professionals (ESOMAR). Steadman therefore strictly adheres to the international code of ethics and practices regarding opinion polling as stipulated by GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION/ESOMAR/WAPOR guidelines. Steadman is also ISO 9001:2000 accredited.

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