The Future of Work Yumiko Murakami Head, OECD Tokyo Centre 14 Nov, 2018 ＠High – level Conference Part I: "EU-Japan EPA – additional opportunities for trade, investment and cooperation"

The 4th Industrial Revolution is well underway

The adoption of new technology is not inevitable

The risk of automation may be exaggerated (though many jobs will change)

Most countries have seen increases in employment rates

History suggests new jobs will emerge too, complementary to digital technologies Source: Wall Street Journal, “Workers, fear not the Apocalypse”, 5 September 2017

The slowdown in wage growth was widely spread

Jobs created are not the same as those disappearing: labour markets are polarising

Many workers do not have the right skills for the new jobs

The risk of automation is highest for lowskilled low-paid workers

Some policy options Retention and advancement schemes – E.g. Germany Individual learning accounts – E.g. Compte Personnel de Formation in France Lifelong guidance – E.g. career guidance voucher in Flanders (Belgium) Training targeted at new forms of work – E.g. Bridge to Employment in San Francisco

Does policy need a paradigm shift?

The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource

Move to a new model for skills development Accelerating pace of technological change creates need for skills development across the life course Move to a new model for skills development

Open/Distance Learners are Young, Highly Skilled and Educated

Problem Solving Skills Improve with Prolonged Digital Exposure AVERAGE SCORE IN PROBLEM SOLVING IN TECHNOLOGY-RICH ENVIRONMENTS OF WORKERS IN DIGITAL AND NON-DIGITAL ENVIRONMENTS Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)

The Uneven Reality of Lifelong Learning (Open/Distance Education) SHARE OF POPULATION HAVING PARTICIPATED IN OPEN/DISTANCE EDUCATION IN LAST 12 MONTHS PRIOR TO SURVEY, BY AGE GROUP Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)

Open Education Mainly Used by Those in Formal Education in the Labour Market SHARE OF STUDENTS HAVING PARTICIPATED IN OPEN/DISTANCE EDUCATION IN LAST 12 MONTHS PRIOR TO SURVEY, BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)

Opportunities and policies to foster jobs in the digital economy New and potentially better paid jobs Fewer dangerous jobs, more flexibility Policies: Requires a well-functioning labour market to facilitate redeployment and mobility Formal and informal learning mechanisms to ensure workers have the right mix of skills, with new forms of education and adult learning Co-ordination among education and training institutions, employers and social partners – social dialogue will help Provide social and employment protection, especially for non- standard, irregular workers Adaptation – build confidence in society’s ability to change and people to benefit