the indo-pacific: A Strategic Outlook Peter A. Gumataotao RADM, USN (Ret) Director Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

Assessing the environment “A competitive world with growing challenges.” 4+1 (or 2+2+1, or 2+3) PRC, Russia, North Korea, Iran Terrorism “America’s military remains the strongest in the world. However, US advantages are shrinking…” “The contest over information accelerates these political, economic, and military competitions.” “We learned the difficult lesson that when America does not lead, malign actors fill the void to the disadvantage of the United States.”

Indo-Pacific Security Dynamics Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure (PMESII) (P) Territorial Disputes (P) Rising Authoritarianism (P) Rogue Regimes (M) Growing & Modernizing Militaries (E) Economic Interdependence (E) Neo-mercantilist Trading Blocks (E) Race for Natural Resources (S) Rising Nationalism (Info) The Speed of Information (Info) Information as a weapon (Infr) Ports, Airfields IP is where the powers that matter are IP militaries leading the way IP is the manufacturing and transportation center of the world In IP, nationalism and capability congruent IP is where the threats to information are developing IP infrastructure used for great power ends

National Interests of the United States Protect the American People, the Homeland, and the American Way of Life Promote American Prosperity Preserve Peace Through Strength Advance American Influence What does this mean for the Indo-Pacific?

Protect the American People Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-proliferation Detect Biothreats—SARS Terrorism Eliminate Terrorists Safe Havens Sever Sources of Terrorist Strengths Combat Radicalization Dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations Deter and Disrupt Malicious Cyber Actors Promote Resilience Where is the Great Power competition?

Promote American Prosperity Promote free, fair, and reciprocal Economic Relationships Pursue bilateral trade and investment agreements with countries that commit to fair and reciprocal trade Protection of Intellectual Property Export Energy US’ First Overseas war was to protect the lives and property of American merchants from harassment by the Barbary Pirates. SS Empress of China launched the Asia trade on 22 Feb 1784, 5 ½ months after the Treaty of Paris ended the Revolutionary War and began US trade with Asia

Preserve Peace Through Strength Military Capabilities Ready for full spectrum conflict Maintain nuclear deterrent Missile defense Space Cyber—PRC, DPRK, Russia Intelligence—cultural understanding Diplomacy Building Coalitions – interest based cooperation Public Diplomacy – what do we communication to whom? Expand and deepen relationships with allies and partners Japan, Australia, ROK, Philippines, Thailand Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand Law enforcement, defense, and intelligence relationship with SE Asia

Advance American Influence Champion American values Uphold the rule of law and the free international order Defend the commons International air and maritime lines of communication Space Cyberspace Alternative to state-directed investments Remove obstacles—enable liberty Create enduring relationships to advance common interests Targeted engagement with developing and fragile states Empower women and youth

Comparison with 2015 nss vs 2015 2017 Security of the US, its citizens, and US allies and partners Strong, Innovative, and growing US economy in an open international economic system Respect for universal values A rules-based international order advanced by U.S. leadership that promotes peace, security, and opportunity through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges Protect the American People, the Homeland, and the American Way of Life Promote American Prosperity Preserve Peace Through Strength Advance American Influence

National Defense Strategy Build a More Lethal Force Prioritize preparedness for war Modernize key capabilities Evolve innovative operational concepts Develop a lethal, agile, and resilient force posture and employment Cultivate workforce talent Strengthen Alliances and Attract new Partners Uphold a foundation of mutual respect, responsibility, priorities, and accountability Expand regional consultative mechanisms and collaborative planning Deepen interoperability Reform the Department for Greater Performance and Affordability

Joint strategic plan Protect America’s security at home and abroad Counter proliferation of WMD Defeat ISIS, al-Qa’ida, and others Counter instability, transnational crime, and violence Increase capacity and strengthen resilience of partners and allies Strengthen border security and protect US citizens abroad Renew America’s competitive advantage for sustained economic growth and job creation Advance bilateral relationships and leverage institutions Promote healthy, educated, and productive populations Combat corruption and promoted market-oriented economics and governance reform Promote American leadership through balanced engagement Transform nations from assistance recipients to enduring partners Engage international fora Increase partnerships with private sector and civil society Prevent spread of disease and provide humanitarian relief Ensure Effectiveness and Accountability to the American Taxpayer

What is the Free and Open Indo-Pacific? “Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and of Asia and Africa into a place that values freedom, the rule of law, and the market economy, free from force or coercion, and making it prosperous.” —Prime Minister Abe 27 Aug 2016 6th Tokyo International Conference on African Development Protect the International Rules Based Order—the foundation of prosperity Support ASEAN Centrality in regional security architecture Empowered to contribute more effectively to regional stability. Promotion of Common Values By “free,” we mean: Nations free from coercion and able to protect their sovereignty Societies increasingly freer in terms of good governance, and fundamental liberties By “open,” we mean: Freedom of the seas, and commitment to the peaceful resolution of disputes. Open investment environments and improved connectivity to drive regional integration and prosperity. Cooperative Pursuit of these Objectives with all who share our views and Our Values Randall Schriver, Assistant Secretary of Defense, Asian & Pacific Security Affairs and Alex Wong, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy. 15 May 2018.

How do we implement the FOIP? 2 June 2018, Secretary of Defense Mattis outlines four themes guiding FOIP Expanding attention on the maritime space Interoperability with partners Strengthening the rule of law, civil society, and transparent governance Private sector-led development $

So what is our regional strategy? Ends Ways ? Means