Understanding Minnesota’s Labor Market Tim O’Neill | Regional Labor Market Analyst Labor Market Information Office – http://mn.gov/deed/data

Labor market information office Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more LMI is the foundation for informed, market- responsive planning

How is the job market doing?

U.S. and Minnesota labor market situations Recent employment trends Longer-term trends Unemployment situation Labor force participation rates Wage growth

Population Trends in Minnesota

Labor force trends: 1976 – 2017

Age trends in Minnesota 2007 – 2017 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates Total population grew by 7.3% between 2007 and 2017 (378,985 people)

Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) Minnesota 2006 – 2016 Annual Data Percent of Jobs in 2006 in 2016 Change in Jobs 2006 – 2016 Total Jobs 100.0% +5.1% 19 years & younger 8.1% 6.5% -15.6% 20 to 24 years 12.2% 10.8% -6.9% 25 to 44 years 43.4% 42.5% +2.9% 45 to 54 years 22.0% 19.8% -5.4% 55 to 64 years 11.4% 16.1% +48.5% 65 years & older 2.9% 4.4% +59.5%

Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) 2015 Annual Data From a workforce standpoint, the two oldest regions in the state were SW MN and NW MN – each with over 22% of jobs held by workers ages 55 and over The Metro Area was the youngest region, with 18.5% of job holders in the older age cohorts Central MN also slightly younger Yet, every region has witnessed large increases in the number of older workers in the past decade…..

Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) 2006 – 2016 Percentage Change in Workforce by Age Group

Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) Minnesota 2006 Annual Data

Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) Minnesota 2016 Annual Data

Minnesota’s tight labor market mn.gov/deed/jvs

Complexities in the labor market Barriers to employment and hiring Hiring difficulties due to mismatches between job requirements and the training, skills, education, or experience of applicants Hiring difficulties caused by factors unrelated to qualifications of the candidate pool, such as unattractive wages, work hours, or geographic location Jobs and poverty in America: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/magazine/americans-jobs-poverty-homeless.html Americans holding multiple jobs: https://finance-commerce.com/2018/10/why-so-many-americans-still-work-multiple-jobs/ Long commutes in the metro: http://www.startribune.com/anoka-county-looks-for-relief-from-longest-metro-commute/495357201/ Demand for child care options: http://www.startribune.com/demand-for-on-campus-child-care-in-minnesota-spurs-outcry-from- parents/495224441/

Regional unemployment rates mn.gov/deed/laus Area September 2018 Data Q2 2018 Job Vacancies Unemployment to Vacancy Ratio Unemployment Rate Number of Unemployed Central MN 2.2% 8,679 15,536 0.6 Northeast MN 2.8% 4,566 8,542 0.5 Northwest MN 2.3% 7,119 14,136 Southeast MN 2.1% 5,754 9,641 Southwest MN 4,685 12,355 0.4 Metro Area 37,520 82,071 Minnesota 68,323 142,282 United States 3.6% 5.8 million - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Minnesota job vacancies by industry mn.gov/deed/jvs

Minnesota job vacancies by occupation mn.gov/deed/jvs Combined food prep and serving workers Nursing assistants Retail salespersons Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers Personal care aides Maids and housekeeping cleaners Supervisors of retail sales workers Farmworkers and laborers Cashiers Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Cooks, restaurant Stock clerks and order fillers Waiters and waitresses Teacher assistants Janitors and cleaners Counter attendants, cafeteria and food concession Supervisors of food prep and serving workers Recreation workers Registered nurses Bus drivers, school or special client Occupational groups with the largest number of vacancies in the state include: food prep and serving, sales and related, personal care and service, office and administrative support, and healthcare practitioners Top-20 occupations (above) account for 44% of the state’s total job vacancies

High demand & high wage mn.gov/deed/oid High School Diploma or less Postsecondary Award or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or higher Plumbers ($69,888) Registered Nurses ($78,354) Financial Managers ($120,931) Supervisors of Construction Trades Workers ($72,634) Dental Assistants ($48,734) Sales Managers ($121,701) Insurance Sales Agents ($62,941) Web Developers ($73,549) Software Developers, Applications ($90,834) Electricians ($71,136) Radiologic Technicians ($64,709) Computer Systems Analysts ($88,858) Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Mfg. ($64,646) Industrial Engineering Technicians ($51,397) Accountants & Auditors ($65,707) Carpenters ($49,442) Computer Network Support Specialists ($58,510) Nurse Practitioners ($112,778)

Minnesota employment outlook 2016 – 2026: mn.gov/deed/eo

Minnesota employment outlook 2016 – 2026: mn.gov/deed/eo Total employment in Minnesota is projected to increase by 5.8% between 2016 and 2026 – equivalent to approximately 181,600 net new jobs.

Minnesota employment outlook 2016 – 2026 total change: mn.gov/deed/eo Personal care aides (33.5% growth rate) Medical assistants (25.3%) Combined food prep and serving workers (11.9%) Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (6.4%) Home health aides (30.6%) Childcare workers (8.5%) Registered nurses (11.0%) Teacher assistants (6.7%) Janitors and cleaners (8.1%) LPNs (12.2%) Software developers, applications (23.7%) Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers (5.5%) General and operations managers (7.3%) Business operations specialists (7.8%) Market research analysts (20.0%) Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing (5.7%) Accountants and auditors (9.3%) Nursing assistants (5.7%) Financial managers (16.7%) Cooks, restaurant (7.1%) Fastest-growing occupations (projected) include: Wind turbine service technicians (100.3%) Statisticians (39.0%) Personal care aides (33.5%) Physician assistants (30.9%) Home health aides (30.6%) Nurse practitioners (27.8%) Phlebotomists (26.1%) MRI technologists (26.1%) Medical assistants (25.3%) Software developers, applications (23.7%)

Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force stats by age in Minnesota 2017 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates Age In Labor Force Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Total, 16+ 3,073,870 69.5% 3.6% 16 to 19 years 153,862 52.8% 12.1% 20 to 24 years 299,708 84.9% 5.2% 25 to 54 years 1,909,510 88.0% 3.1% 55 to 64 years 546,316 72.8% 2.6% 65 to 74 years 139,466 28.3% 1.9% 75 years+ 24,162 6.6% 2.4%

Demographic trends in Minnesota 2007 – 2017 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates 2007: minority percentage of total population at 14.4% 2017: 20.1% Populations of color grew by 24.6% in the US between 2007 and 2017. White alone, not Hispanic or Latino population decreased by 0.6%. Populations of color make up 39.4% of the total US population. Native-born (2007-2017): +237,743 (4.9%) Foreign-born: +141,242 (40.9%) 345,001 foreign born persons in 2007 (18.7% reported as black or African American) 486,243 foreign born persons in 2017 (27.6% reported as black or African American)

2017 Minnesota labor force statistics Population In Labor Force 2007 – 2017 Labor Force Growth Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Total Population 16+ 3,073,870 +165,197 (+5.7%) 69.5% 3.6% White alone 2,605,255 -11,028 (-0.4%) 69.2% 3.1% Black or African American alone 179,530 +75,283 (+72.2%) 72.6% 8.3% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 24,595 +1,655 (+7.2%) 56.9% 14.5% Asian alone 145,166 +51,861 (+55.6%) 69.8% 4.2% Some other race alone 57,769 +22,043 (+61.7%) 76.1% 4.4% Two or more races 61,132 +27,348 (+80.9%) 74.7% 6.4% Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) 149,129 +47,245 (+46.4%) 76.6% 5.4%

Population trends by race 2000 – 2016 ACS Estimates

Population composition by race 2012-2016 ACS 5-Year Estimates

Minnesota industry employment change by race 2012-2017 Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)

Minnesota industry employment change by race 2012-2017 Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)

Minnesota percent below poverty level 2005 – 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Minnesota median household income 2014 ACS 5-Year Estimates – 2016 ACS 5-Year Estimates Population 2014 2016 Percent Change Total $60,828 $63,217 3.9% White $63,127 $65,864 4.3% Black or African American $29,873 $30,703 2.8% American Indian $32,161 $34,863 8.4% Asian $65,575 $69,647 6.2% Hispanic or Latino $41,674 $44,000 5.6%

Industry Trends in Minnesota

Minnesota industry trends Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 2000 – 2017

Minnesota’s largest-growing industries QCEW 2012 – 2017 Industry Title 2017 Jobs Job Growth Percent Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services 160,011 28,625 21.8% Ambulatory Health Care Services 152,364 21,183 16.1% Social Assistance 96,766 19,328 25.0% Specialty Trade Contractors 77,332 17,466 29.2% Food Services & Drinking Places 196,833 16,256 9.0% Educational Services 228,707 12,613 5.8% Credit Intermediation & Related Activities 63,250 9,639 18.0% Public Administration 132,003 9,630 7.9% Hospitals 126,863 7,642 6.4% Food & Beverage Stores 56,521 6,151 12.2% Largest-employing include Educational Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Prof., Sci., & Technical Services; Ambulatory Health Care Services; Public Administration; Administrative & Support Services; Hospitals; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Social Assistance; Management of Companies; Specialty Trade Contractors; and Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Total of all industries expanded by 208,378 jobs (7.9%), and now stands at 2,853,313 total jobs (annual 2017) 4/6/2019 Optional Tagline Goes Here | mn.gov/websiteurl

Metro Area’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Air Transportation 14,002 94.4% 1.6 Management of Companies 71,555 89.4% 1.5 Securities, Commodity Contracts, & Related Activities 16,771 85.9% 1.4 Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing 35,756 79.3% 1.3 Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services 124,798 78.0% Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 44,315 76.4% Miscellaneous Manufacturing 18,599 75.2% 1.2 Real Estate 20,634 75.0% Administrative & Support Services 92,599 72.1% Personal & Laundry Services 21,147 72.0% Metro Area had 1,732,448 total jobs (60.7% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries include Educational Services; Prof., Sci., & Technical Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Administrative & Support Services; Ambulatory Health Care Services; Management of Companies; Public Administration; Hospitals; Social Assistance; and Nursing & Residential Care Facilities

Central MN’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Furniture & Related Product Manufacturing 2,712 28.2% 2.9 Animal Production & Aquaculture 2,614 23.6% 2.4 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 4,592 20.1% 2.1 Food Manufacturing 8,452 17.8% 1.8 Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing 2,851 17.7% Gasoline Stations 4,404 17.3% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 7,120 16.8% 1.7 Truck Transportation 4,269 16.1% Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 5,330 15.1% 1.6 Accommodation 4,872 14.0% 1.5 Central MN had 274,862 total jobs (9.6% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries included Educational Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Ambulatory Health Care Services; Hospitals; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Public Administration; Specialty Trade Contractors; Administrative & Support Services; Food Manufacturing; and Social Assistance

Southeast MN’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 2,640 25.3% 3.0 Food Manufacturing 10,639 22.4% 2.6 Ambulatory Health Care Services 31,624 20.8% 2.4 Gasoline Stations 3,389 13.3% 1.6 Machinery Manufacturing 4,068 12.4% 1.5 Hospitals 14,497 11.4% 1.3 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 11,807 10.6% Truck Transportation 2,760 10.4% 1.2 Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing 4,654 10.3% Food & Beverage Stores 5,709 10.1% Southeast MN had 241,811 total jobs (8.5% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries included Ambulatory Health Care Facilities; Educational Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Hospitals; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Public Administration; Food Manufacturing; Administrative & Support Services; Social Assistance; and Specialty Trade Contractors

Northwest MN’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 4,062 38.3% 4.9 Crop Production 2,260 30.4% 3.9 Wood Product Manufacturing 3,451 Accommodation 5,792 16.6% 2.1 Gasoline Stations 3,948 15.5% 2.0 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 3,558 Food Manufacturing 6,048 12.7% 1.6 Public Administration 15,755 11.9% 1.5 Machinery Manufacturing 3,810 11.6% Amusement, Gambling, & Recreation Industries 4,118 11.3% Northwest MN had 221,187 total jobs (7.8% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries included Educational Services; Public Administration; Food Services & Drinking Places; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Hospitals; Ambulatory Health Care Facilities; General Merchandise Stores; Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods; Social Assistance; and Food Manufacturing

Southwest MN’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Animal Production & Aquaculture 3,990 36.0% 5.8 Electrical Equip., Appliance, & Component Mfg. 1,996 24.3% 3.9 Food Manufacturing 11,007 23.3% 3.8 Printing & Related Support Activities 3,354 15.2% 2.4 Truck Transportation 3,292 12.4% 2.0 Gasoline Stations 2,844 11.2% 1.8 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 4,506 10.2% 1.6 Machinery Manufacturing 3,222 9.8% Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 10,303 9.2% 1.5 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 1,932 8.4% 1.4 Southwest MN had 177,301 total jobs (6.2% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries included Educational Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Food Manufacturing; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Public Administration; Ambulatory Health Care Facilities; Hospitals; Social Assistance; Food & Beverage Stores; and Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods

Northeast MN’s distinguishing industries Sorted by Location Quotient Industry Title Number of Jobs Share of MN Jobs LQ Mining (except Oil and Gas) 3,933 70.3% 14.0 Paper Manufacturing 1,953 21.0% 4.2 Utilities 1,629 11.8% 2.3 Accommodation 3,869 11.1% 2.2 Hospitals 13,419 10.6% 2.1 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 10,745 9.6% 1.9 Gasoline Stations 2,187 8.6% 1.7 Amusement, Gambling, & Recreation Industries 3,098 8.5% Public Administration 11,015 8.3% Religious, Grant-making, Civic, & Professional Orgs. 2,451 7.1% 1.4 Northeast MN had 142,984 total jobs (5.0% of the state’s total employment) Largest-employing industries included Hospitals; Educational Services; Food Services & Drinking Places; Public Administration; Nursing & Residential Care Facilities; Ambulatory Health Care Facilities; Social Assistance; Prof., Sci., & Technical Services; Mining (except Oil & Gas); Accommodation

Resources available at DEED

MN DEED labor market tools Occupational Employment Statistics Cost of Living Calculator Occupations in Demand Job Vacancy Survey Career and Education Explorer Graduate Employment Outcomes CareerOneStop and MySkillsMyFuture* Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Staffing Patterns Current Employment Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics Comparisons (MN and Metro Area) Business Finder Quarterly Employment Demographics

Occupational employment statistics mn.gov/deed/oes Geography Employment 25th Percentile Wage Median Wage 75th Percentile Wage Metro Area 1,769,290 $14.20 $21.92 $34.43 Minnesota 2,838,270 $13.41 $20.07 $31.06 U.S. 142,549,250 $12.05 $18.33 $29.72 According to DEED’s Cost of Living Calculator, the basic-needs budget for a typical family of three in the Metro is: $63,996/year This equates to an hourly wage of $20.51 for each adult worker Top-Employing Industries (Metro) Employment Median Wage Education & Health Services 403,350 $21.97 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 333,620 $17.87 Professional & Business Services 306,570 $27.36 Manufacturing 173,770 $23.91 Leisure & Hospitality 169,760 $11.55 Financial Activities 133,140 $27.90 Public Administration 88,450 $29.13 Construction 69,260 $30.16

Career & education explorer tool Offers a wide range of occupational information: Wage information, including cost-of-living comparison Current demand Future openings and growth rate Educational requirements, certifications, and licenses On the job tasks, working conditions, and abilities Links to MinnesotaWorks.net and WFC help http://mn.gov/deed/careers

CareerOneStop Explore careers Skills & interest assessments All new career videos! Skills & interest assessments Find training & jobs in your area www.careeronestop.org

Keeping skills in mind www.myskillsmyfuture.org

Labor market publications and assistance Minnesota Economic Trends: http://mn.gov/deed/trends Quarterly magazine on economic topics Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line Minnesota Employment Review: http://mn.gov/deed/review Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends Includes Minnesota business development Available exclusively on-line LMI Helpline: 651-259-7384 Send questions by email to deed.lmi@state.mn.us

Thank You! Tim O’Neill Regional Labor Market Analyst Labor Market Information Office timothy.oneill@state.mn.us mn.gov/deed/data