Part 3

Take out your demographic transition model worksheet

World Birth Rate – number of births in a year per 1,000 people.

World Mortality(death) Rate – number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people.

World Population Growth – Rate of natural increase- BR minus DR (does not take into account immigration and emigration).

The Demographic Transition

The Demographic Transition Stage 1: Low to No Population Growth High BR and high DR = slow population increase Low RNI, high IMR Almost all human history Marked by epidemics and plagues to keep the death rates high, random plants High % Primary Economic Activities Stage 2: High Population Growth High BR and DR drops drastically IMR still high, high TFR- 6.0-8.0 Example: 1700s- beginning of Industrial Revolution and 2nd Agricultural Revolution- more efficient farming methods = increased food supply = supporting a higher population overall Infrastructure and factories in cities get built Medical Revolution occurs (vaccines, sanitation systems, clean water) High % Primary Economic Activities, Periphery countries

The Demographic Transition Stage 3- Moderate Population Growth BR declines, DR low (economics increase, women getting education, urbanization) IMR drops, TFR still high 4.0-6.0 Family Planning Secondary & Tertiary Economic Activities, Semi-Periphery countries Stage 4- Low Growth or Stationary Stage Countries experiencing low TFRs Low BR and low DR = low to no population growth (ZPG- zero pop growth) Social reasons, women’s decisions, choosing careers, children expensive Low IMR, TFR around 2.1 Tertiary, Quaternary, and Quinary Economic Activities, Core Counties

The Demographic Transition Stage 5: Negative Population Growth Populations are decreasing TFR too low, 1.5 or below Aging societies, high elder dependency ratio Later marriages, higher education, expensive children Tertiary, Quaternary, and Quinary Economic Activities, Core countries Japan, Italy, Singapore, Denmark

Epidemiologic Transition Model Stage 1- lots of communicable diseases Stage 2- because of the medical revolution and sanitation, vaccines and clean water contributed to controlling and eliminating diseases. Refugee camps increase stage two conditions. Stage 3- non communicable diseases running around. People are more sedentary and eating more calories, diseases brought on by lifestyles Stage 4- lifestyle changes occur (exercise more, eating healthier) and there is technology to ‘fix’ and/or prevent these problems. Stage 5-’superbugs’ where we have become so dependent on antibiotics and vaccines that populations could get wiped out suddenly.

Population Growth in India Significant demographic variations occur within countries. In India, growth rates are higher in the east and northeast.

Why do Growth Rates Vary in India? 1960s population planning program 1970s country began forced sterilization program for men with 3 or more children. 22.5 million men were sterilized. 2004 state of Uttar Pradesh began guns for sterilization program. Today, most states use advertising and persuasion to lower birth rates.

Maharashtra, India. A sign reads “free family planning sterilization operation” closed in 1996.

The Demographic Transition in Great Britain Studied the change in birth rates, death rates, and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization. Found a transition occurred when death rates decline and then birth rates decline, resulting in a low or sustained growth rate. Before the Industrial Revolution- High BR and high DR = low population growth After Industrialization began- low DR and high BR = population explosion

Affect of AIDS on population pyramid for South Africa. Predicted population for 2035, without and with AIDS. With AIDS, looks like a population “chimney.”

AIDS is leaving large numbers of AIDS orphans. Field note p.63

AIDS is creating large numbers of AIDS care-givers. Drawing by a Pokot boy in Kenya, the drawing shows him working in the fields and taking care of his family cattle in order to assist his sick family members.

Ted Talk- New Insights on HIV

Longer Life Expectancies typically mean higher rates of chronic diseases.

How do Governments Affect Population Change?

Government Population Policies Expansive Population Policies (pro-natalist policies) - Encourages population growth. - Raise the rate of natural increase

Eugenic Population Policies - Favors one racial or cultural sector over others. - Nazi Germany Restrictive Population Policies (anti-natalist policies) - Range from toleration of unapproved birth control to outright prohibition of large families. - China’s Once-Child Policy

China’s One Child Policy What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?

Ted Talk- look at the data about ‘developing’ countries moving forward Dataset

Some countries may not make it past the 21st century… 10 Countries that may not make it

Great Review Videos! 200 Countries, 200 Years The world in the last 200 years Population, Sustainability, and Malthus Population Pyramids- Importance of