Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences SBS200 - Lecture Section 001, Fall 2018 Room 150 Harvill Building 10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

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Lab sessions Everyone will want to be enrolled in one of the lab sessions No Labs This week

Start by reading Please read: Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D)

Textbooks Primary Text: Introductory Statistics. OpenStax College http://cnx.org/content/col11562/latest/ E.copies are available free online Hard copies are available bookstore Selected readings from Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D) 100 Questions (and Answers) About Research Methods. Neil J Salkind (2012). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. S Plous (1993).

Course website http://courses.eller.arizona.edu/mgmt/delaney/ Announcements Syllabus Link to D2L Grades Homework assignments

Let’s start with four short demonstrations Why study stats? Let’s start with four short demonstrations

Important: Try not to mix up the lists!! Demonstration 1: A Memory Test Try to remember these word lists for a recall test Important: Try not to mix up the lists!!

Why does that work?

Demonstration 2: A Counting Test Count how many times the ball is passed by the team in the white shirts (not the black shirts – just the white) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&watch_response

Why does that work?

Demonstration 3: A Test of Disambiguation

Right half of room Please close your eyes

Really !

. This is a rat

Left half of room Please close your eyes

Really !

. This is a man

Everyone Please open your eyes

. What is this a picture of?

. This is a rat This is a man What is this a picture of?

Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Everyday our “biases” affect how we see the world and make decisions. Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Our knowledge affects our perceptions of the world. New knowledge can reshape what we see.

Demonstration 4: Another Test of Disambiguation New knowledge can reshape what we see.

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Demonstration 1: Our prior knowledge will influence our memories – inserting what was never there Demonstration 2: Our interests will influence what we see – making invisible what is right in front of us Demonstration 3: Our recent experiences will influence what we see – making one interpretation much more likely Demonstration 4: Our current environment will influence what we see – making images meaningful

Not just “tricks”, but demonstrations that show even the most basic interpretations of what we perceive and remember in the physical world is malleable and vulnerable. How we interpret social interactions and other problems are similarly vulnerable to bias. Careful measurement helps us account for these biases.

Why study stats? Every day we disambiguate what we see, remember, interpret and understand. Every time we see, or remember, or understand a problem we are vulnerable to biases. Biases can impede or improve our decision making. (We want to minimize “bad biases” while maximizing “good biases” to our decision making) It is important to be aware of our own vulnerability to biases and illusions in social settings and in even the most basic daily experiences.

Statistics and research methods allow us to try to “take into account” our natural tendencies for specific kinds of biases “When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know – there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to “contaminate” it with existing information” - Clifford Konold, Scientific Reasoning Research Institute, University of Massachusetts* * From Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics By Clifford Konold, University of Massachusetts. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.1 (1995)

Why study stats? POWER!! Be able to defend that your methods are better than others – lead to advancement

Why study stats? Cake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBjNzJEWpCI Cops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5m_g72KaKg

Why study statistics? Literacy in language of statistics Study of stats provides opportunity for improving your computer literacy and management of databases and technical literacy Data management Too much??! - Stats can help you simplify Too little ??!? – Stats can help you fill in the blanks (smartly) Career Advancement (how helpful you are to others) Improvement of own critical thinking (own life-long cognitive development)

Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences What is this course for? Improve skills for using data to inform our daily decisions and to avoid problems that arise from biases and illusions. Exploring the assumptions and principles underlying experimental methodologies and findings Practice critical evaluation of data and claims both in the popular media and in scientific publications Practice completing calculations and applying the solutions to applied situations in daily life and in scientific inquiry

Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences How will we do it? Lectures and reading Laboratory research and projects In-class assignments Homework assignments

Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences Instructor: Suzanne Delaney, Ph.D. Office: 405 “N” McClelland Hall Phone: 621-2045 Email: delaney@u.arizona.edu Office hours: 2:00 – 3:30 Monday and Wednesdays and by appointment

Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences Grading Short writing assignments - 20 points (lowest 3 will be dropped) Homework assignments - 20 points (no assignments will be dropped) Laboratory activities - 60 points Four multiple choice exams - 400 points

Short Writing Assignments Regular short writing assignments most will be in-class some of these reflect in-class activities and interactions and it will not be possible to make them up worth a total of 20 points - writing form is available online

. Short Writing Assignment Form

Homework Assignments Regular homework assignments will be assigned in class. Some assignments will be from the textbooks, while others will be reports of other activities. Homework assignments will be worth a total of 20 points.

Writing Assignments and Homeworks are meant to: Provide opportunities to apply concepts in the class to other contexts to help generate semantically rich representations of the material 2) discuss applications of class concepts with others in the class 3) think critically and make distinctions between related concepts 4) exploit our knowledge of elaborative encoding to maximize test performance.

Exams Four exams - 100 points each Multiple choice Make-ups only in cases of emergency All exams will be cumulative

Exams are designed to: 1) encourage formation of factual knowledge that can be called upon when integrating important concepts encourage application of concepts to contextually rich situations 3) encourage critical thinking and highlight distinctions between related concepts

Evaluation and assignment of grades 1. Short writing assignments (20 points) 2. Homework (20 points) 3. Labs (60 points) 4. Exams (400 points)

Assignment of grades 500 possible points 450 - 500 = 90% = A 400 - 449 = 80% = B 350 - 399 = 70% = C 300 - 349 = 60% = D Below 299 = E

Please note additional reading assignments will be assigned in class Assigned readings Please note additional reading assignments will be assigned in class

Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences It’s better if you don’t miss class !!! Cumulative course Start quickly Attending class is a requirement Use notes and homework as a guide for what to study Math background and concerns . .

By the end of today... Requirements for the course What is descriptive vs inferential statistics? What is quantitative vs qualitative data? What is an independent vs dependent variable? How is a study that uses correlational methodology different from one that uses experimental methodology? What are the four “levels of measurement”? Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio

Missed Classes and exams If you do miss a class try to get notes from a classmate you are still responsible for information Make-up exams will be given only in cases of emergency If you know you will miss an exam, you may make arrangements to take a similar exam at an earlier time.

Thank you! See you next time!!