Public Opinion and Political Action

The study of the American public opinion aims to understand the distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues i.e. who believes what? Do you see yourself as a member of a political party or subscribe to a specific ideology? Are you an “Independent”?

Where do these ideas come from Where do these ideas come from? How do people end up adopting a political ideology?

Political Socialization The process by which one develops political beliefs

Factors That Affect Political Socialization

The Family Most important role in socialization Who do you spend the most time with? Who loves you? Are these beliefs usually clearly stated or are they “absorbed”?

School Pledge Gov. class Colleges tend to be liberal (free flow of ideas) College professors tend to be liberal

Religion People who attend church regularly are more likely to vote Fundamentalists (literal interpretation of Bible), Evangelicals, and Protestants tend to vote conservative Catholics have traditionally voted Dem. but it’s more split recently Jews more likely to vote Dem.

Race and Ethnicity African Americans strongly Democratic (88% Clinton) Whites more conservative (58% Trump) Asian Americans historically conservative but more recently Democratic (65% Clinton) Hispanics and Latinos tend to support Dems (65% Clinton)

The American People Page 180

Geography and Location East and West coasts tend to be more liberal The south and mid-west tend to be conservative Urban areas – liberal Rural areas – conservative

Over the last 60 years, the Sunbelt has had the greatest population growth. (1990-2010) Florida 24%, Texas 23%, California 14% - Northeast 5%. Census – every 10 years Reapportionment

Mass Media Where do you get your information from? Young people less likely to get their news from television or newspapers than older people

Political Ideology A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public purpose Valence issues – issues pretty much everyone agrees on Wedge issues – issues that sharply divide public opinion Examples?

Liberals and Conservatives Deep breath…here we go… 

Liberals The “left” Bigger government Smaller military Pro-choice Pro gay marriage Favor affirmative action Favor taxing the rich Spend more on the poor Solve problems that cause crime

Conservatives The “right” Smaller govt./states rights Bigger military Pro-life More likely to oppose gay marriage Oppose affirmative action Lower taxes Less spending Harsh punishments prevent crimes

Not liberal or conservative? You may be: Libertarian – less government intervention, more protections for civil liberties Low taxes Pro gun and pro choice “We believe that you should be able to think what you want, live where you want, trade for what you want, eat what you want, smoke what you want, and wed whom you want”

Populist: Fundamental Christian ideas Protection of working class High minimum wage Strong welfare programs

Progressive: Workers rights > corporate rights Wealthy should pay more taxes

Third Parties Libertarian Green – Environmental concerns Constitution – strict interpretation of the Constitution

Why does public opinion matter? Political Culture – deeply held values shared by most people in the U.S. Freedom is important Equality of opportunity is important But where we differ, people will want to know Businesses/advertisers Candidates Context for our own opinions

How do we know? Polling 1936 Literary Digest poll George Gallup

Polling methodology Wording Question order Random sampling – everyone has an equal chance of being selected How is this achieved? It’s hard. Random-digit dialing What about cell phones? The internet?

Polling results Margin of error Sampling error – give basically the same poll to two similar samples. The difference is the sampling error +- Push Polling Tracking polls – similar questions over time Exit polls

Polling with my homies Do polls create leaders or followers? Bandwagon effect

Political Participation How do Americans participate in politics?

Voting! The electorate = people who are entitled to vote Voter turnout = people who voted How much do we turn out? Depends on the era Used to be around 90% (corruption) 50 % in the 60s and 70s 60% in the last 4 elections Registered voters or voting age?

Why don’t we participate? Student – America, USA Student number – 111111 Quarter 1 Grade – C- Participation Grade - F Why do nearly ½ of people not vote? U.S. voter participation rate one of the lowest in industrialized nations Voter apathy – lack of concern for the election Political efficacy – effectiveness of vote Losing candidates No change General satisfaction Registration requirements Too many elections Weekday elections

Who votes how? Religion Race Age – what age group votes the most? What age group votes the least? Why? Gender – The gender gap is the difference in voting behavior between men and women Women vote more often Women more likely to vote for Dems More likely to oppose the death penalty and war. Socioeconomic status

We vote the most during presidential elections Not so much during Congressional elections 30- 40% Conservatives more likely to vote in Congressional elections than liberals

Other ways to participate Working on campaigns Running for office Contacting officials Protesting