Some Long Range Forecasts Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences Anthony R. Lupo 302 E ABNR University of Missouri – Columbia Columbia, MO 65211

Our forecast – Summer – 2017 (mid-MO flashback) Near normal temperatures (about 0.0 - 0.5 sigma above normal - about 1 F), possibly warmer in mid-August. Good news for cooling bills. The outcome was cooler than normal by 0.5 oF Above normal amounts of precipitation (about 0.5 sigma), this is good news for agriculture. We were -0.63 inches, which is near normal. Reasoning: We persist in cool neutral ENSO conditions moving toward warm neutral by fall. Newberry et al. (2016) suggests these patterns are favorable for summer. We moved cold neutral to La Nina. Could have been further off.

Our winter 2017-2018 forecast We forecast temperatures to be close to normal, which of course means +/- 0.5 sigma or about +/- 1.7o F. We were +1o F. Give ourselves 2 points! We forecast above normal precipitation by 0 - 1 inch. We were actually about -0.38 inches. We could award 2 points based on being within 0.5 sigma of normal (1 inch). Reasoning: We went full La Niña, this typically augurs for more Pacific blocking. That happened. We went for about 15 inches of snow for winter, but we’re just under 8.

Summer Forecast 2018 (mid-MO) La Nina (fading) conditions currently.

Summer Forecast 2018 Models looking to continue pushing through Neutral conditions, then moving toward possible weak El Nino.

Spring 2018 Spring Temps – MAM (near normal to slightly above normal here – See Newberry et al. 2016.)

Spring 2018 Spring Precipitation: MAM(should be near normal to dry here)

Summer - 2018 CPC Summer temps – JJA (a bit above normal? Hot in the Southwest)

Summer - 2018 CPC Summer Precipitation JJA (Maybe close to normal here?)

Summer - 2018 CPC forecast is for a warmer than normal summer temperature-wise, but a hint that things may be like last year. The CPC forecast is near normal precipitation-wise, but a hint of dry conditions emerging. In the Spring and Summer 2018, ENSO is predicted to move from cold neutral to warm neutral by fall. A larger swing than forecast last year at this time. Beware, last year’s ENSO forecast was not correct.

Our forecast – Summer - 2018 Near normal temperatures (about +/- 0.25 sigma from normal - about 0.5 F), possibly warmer in mid-August. Good news for cooling bills. Near normal amounts of precipitation (about +/- 0.5 sigma), this is somewhat good news for agriculture, depending on how spring goes. Reasoning: We are coming out of La Nina (cold neutral) ENSO conditions moving toward warm-to-El Nino by fall. Newberry et al. (2016) suggests these patterns are favorable for summer.

National drought map Similar to last year, fall and winter were dry, but recent rains have Improved conditions in MO. Drought has returned in California and the southwest.

Summer 2018 Experimental Crop Forecast Summer 2018 – Experimental Crop Yield Projections IRI/CPC Ensemble Plume of ENSO Predictions for Fall 2018 Jan. 2018: Dynamical (Statistical) Model average NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is roughly -0.6°C (-0.9°C)

Summer 2018 Experimental Crop Forecast Missouri Climate Divisions

Summer 2018 Experimental Crop Forecast Feb. 2018: Dynamical (Statistical) Model average NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is roughly -0.4°C (-0.9°C) The IRI/CPC outlook is leaning towards Neutral-El Niño for Fall 2018. (iri.columbia.edu/our- expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)

Summer 2018 Experimental Crop Forecast  According to the JMA definition of ENSO (used in my research), an anomaly above 0.5°C is considered an El Niño event. Therefore, projections for crop yields are based on the projection of ENSO being El Niño in Fall 2018. Also according to the JMA, PDO has been positive since February 2014, with 2017-18 having an annual mean PDO index value of +0.7 (ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decad al/pdo.html). Therefore, crop yield projections will be based on the assumption that Fall 2018 will be a positive PDO.

Summer 2018 Experimental Crop Yield Forecasts Corn Yields: (1.0 sigma is 23 BU/Acre (1990-2013 data) for Div 1, and 26,26,23,19, and 17 BU / Acre for Divs 2,3,4,5,6) Climate Division 1: 0.2 – 0.5 sigma above average 2: 0.2 – 0.5 sigma above average 3: 0.04 – 0.3 sigma above average 4: 0.1 – 0.5 sigma above average 5: 0.1 - 0.2 sigma above average 6: 0.2 – 0.5 sigma above average

Summer 2017 Experimental Crop Yield Forecasts Soybean Yields (1.0 Sigma is 5.5 BU / Acre (1990-2013 data) for Div 1, and 5, 6.5, 6.7, 4.1, and 5.3 BU/Acre for Divs 2,3,4,5,6) Climate Division 1: 0.3 – 0.4 sigma above average 2: 0.3 – 0.5 sigma above average 3: 0.4 – 0.5 sigma above average 4: 0.4 sigma above average 5: 0.3 – 0.5 sigma above average 6: 0.1 – 0.3 sigma below average

Summer 2017 Experimental Crop Yield Forecasts For Summer 2018, Missouri corn and soybean yields are projected to be near average to 0.5 sigma above average. One exception: soybean yields for climate division 6 (Bootheel) are projected to be near average to as much as 0.5 sigma below average.

CoCoRaHs Please consider joining CoCoRaHs. This data will be used by agencies to decide crop loss information. It’s worth it to you to join Missouri CoCoRaHs. (State Climatologist Patrick Guinan) http://www.cocorahs.org Email: lupoa@missouri.edu