Avian Monitoring to Inform Natural Resource Management March 14, 2019 Please mute your phones. Audio Dial-In: 1-877-885-1087 DoDNaturalResources.net Participant Code: 713-286-7186 Twitter: @DoDNatRes

Avian Monitoring to Inform Natural Resource Management Nick Van Lanen – Avian Ecologist, Bird Conservancy of the Rockies and Clark Jones - Natural and Cultural Resource Manager, US Army Pueblo Chemical Depot, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Legacy Program - 2015 Project Number (14-768)

Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) Designed to meet partner needs at multiple scales Second largest breeding bird monitoring program in the nation Directly addresses NABCI’s “Opportunities for Improving Avian Monitoring” 2007

NABCI “Opportunities for Improving Avian Monitoring” Goal 1: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation practices. Goal 2: Coordinate monitoring programs among organizations and integrate them across spatial scales. Goal 3: Increase the value of monitoring information by improving statistical design. Goal 4: Maintain bird population monitoring data in modern data management systems. http://www.nabci-us.org/aboutnabci/monitoringreportfinal0307.pdf 5

15 states!

Stratification in Wyoming 37 strata make up wy in 2014

Sampling Units

Point Count Methods Visit 1 grid cell per day Attempt to survey all 16 points Ocular vegetation data collection 6 minute point count 1 minute intervals Measure distances to each bird detected

Population Metrics Density Occupancy Easily interpreted More sensitive for common species Data “hungry” Occupancy Good for rare species Can look at species interactions Can be integrated in multi-species metric (richness)

Analytical Methods – Population Metrics Estimate density Distance sampling Buckland, S. T., D. R. Anderson, K. P. Burnham, J. L. Laake, D. L. Borchers, and L. Thomas. 2001. Introduction to distance sampling: estimating abundance of biological populations. Estimate occupancy rate Combined removal and occupancy modeling Pavlacky, D. C., Jr., J. A. Blakesley, G. C. White, D. J. Hanni, and P. M. Lukacs. 2012. Hierarchical multi-scale occupancy estimation for monitoring wildlife populations. Journal of Wildlife Management 76:154-162

Analytical Methods – Habitat Relationships & Density Maps

Advantages of Using IMBCR Design Cost efficiencies Data leveraging Regional context 80 detects per spp -> few stand-alone projects would be able to track more than a handful of the most abundant spp rigorously Regional context is huge w/ multiple, large-scale factors at play like habitat loss on stop-over and wintering grounds, a changing climate, etc.

Monitoring Thru Legacy 9 strata in CO US Air Force Academy Fort Carson Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site Pueblo Chemical Depot 1 stratum in WY Camp Guernsey Based upon discussions w/ NR managers re: mgmt ?’s

Results – Avian Monitoring Sampled 117 sample units in 2015 Averaged ~68 species estimates per installation (Mean of 67 species est/installation)

Results – Population Metrics Determine current status Compare installations to regional estimates Evaluate impact of training activities Compare across years www.allaboutbirds.org Installation Density N Camp Guernsey 11.83 3314 Fort Carson 1.12 445 Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site 11.01 6780 Pueblo Chemical Depot US Air Force Academy

Results – Habitat Relationships Identifying thresholds Determine actions needed to alter habitat to support species http://www.animalspot.net 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database www.allaboutbirds.org

Results – Predictive Density Maps 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database www.allaboutbirds.org

Secure Data Storage via the Rocky Mountain Avian Data Center

Achieving CBM Recommendations DOD CBM Goal NABCI Goal IMBCR Achieves? Incorporating monitoring in mgmt 1 Yes Maximize scientific validity 3 Rigorous, unbiased field methods Meta-data available 4 Efficient, secure data storage Results published Legacy supports monitoring Determine spp of concern on installations Integrated and large-scale program 2

IMBCR Partnership We could not conduct this large of an effort without the IMBCR partnership, which is made up all these agencies and organizations.

Applying IMBCR on Pueblo Chemical Depot and DOD Installations Along the Front Range Clark D. Jones USFWS / Pueblo Chemical Depot Colorado Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office March 14, 2019

2015 Sampling Sparks et. al 2016 76,000 acres 18,500 acres

USFWS - DOD Migratory Bird MOU “…to promote the conservation of migratory bird populations while sustaining the use of military managed lands and airspace for testing, training, and operations.” Prior to initiating any activity likely to affect populations of migratory birds DoD shall Identify the migratory bird species likely to occur in the area of the proposed action and determine if any species of concern could be affected by the activity, and Assess and document, using NEPA when applicable, the effect of the proposed action on species of concern. Without monitoring, we have no way of measuring the effects our actions have on bird populations. Without population estimates and an understanding of natural variation in populations, we can’t achieve our goals. It’s about knowing not only where species occur, but having objective habitat relationships and being able to predict how different actions might affect bird populations. By following these procedures, DoD will minimize the possibility for a proposed action to unintentionally take migratory birds at a level that would violate any of the migratory bird treaties and potentially impact mission activities. In addition, implementing conservation and monitoring programs for migratory birds supports the ecosystem integrity necessary to sustain DoD’s natural resources for the military mission.

IMBCR on DOD Installations Enables comparisons between installations. What about comparisons off the installation? In order to understand what is happening on the installation, it’s important to compare with what is happening off the installation as well. Sparks et. al 2016

Regional comparisons http://rmbo.org/v3/avian/ “We have really good Brewer’s Sparrow habitat”…compared to what?

Regional comparisons Clark Jones / USFWS Without monitoring, we have no way of measuring the effects our actions have on bird populations. Without population estimates and an understanding of natural variation in populations, we can’t achieve our goals.

Regional comparisons Arthur Morris / VIREO “We have really good Brewer’s Sparrow habitat”…compared to what?

Regional comparisons Doug Wechsler / VIREO “We have really good Brewer’s Sparrow habitat”…compared to what?

Regional comparisons Gregg Lasley / VIREO Without monitoring, we have no way of measuring the effects our actions have on bird populations. Without population estimates and an understanding of natural variation in populations, we can’t achieve our goals.

Regional comparisons Lark Bunting

Regional comparisons – Nomadism on the prairie Several species of birds in the western plains exhibit low rates of site fidelity and local populations fluctuate from year to year depending on climatic conditions. Lark Bunting Cassin’s Sparrow Grasshopper Sparrow This creates a problem when trying to determine population estimates and trajectories without a regional context (especially when surveys are not conducted every year). 2015 2018 “We have really good Brewer’s Sparrow habitat”…compared to what? Gregg Lasley / VIREO eBird.org eBird.org

Regional comparisons Gregg Lasley / VIREO “We have really good Brewer’s Sparrow habitat”…compared to what?

Regional comparisons Doug Wechsler / VIREO

Predicting Impacts to Bird Populations

Predicting Impacts to Bird Populations Difficult to quantify impacts of military actions on bird populations IMBCR also quantifies habitat relationships Allows estimates of impacts to be made Example: effects of munitions clearance operations on Cassin’s Sparrow Clark Jones / USFWS

Predicting Impacts to Bird Populations - Occupancy Cassin’s Sparrow

Predicting Impacts to Bird Populations - BASH Habitat modification goals: Reduce BASH Decrease take near airfields Buckley AFB (Aurora, CO) There is a need to assess the success or failure based on changes in local density and occupancy in a statistically defensible manner. It is a small installation. Obtaining sufficient detections is difficult, but IMBCR addresses this by pooling detections.

Biological Investigations Colorado State University – Pueblo Communities to Build Active STEM Engagement (CBASE) Funded by Title III grant “Primary goals of increasing retention and graduation rates of undergraduate STEM students, with emphasis on students from underrepresented backgrounds.” Students conduct field work on a variety of taxa including birds, reptiles, plants, and mammals. IMBCR predictive maps used to select plot locations. 

Students participate in point counts, vegetation surveys, nest monitoring, and genetic sexing of young. Lark Bunting Demography Plots

- Conclusion - Limitations of the legacy project Only one year* of sampling since Legacy project. It’s not a silver bullet. Not all species are detected such as nocturnal species, habitat specialists, very rare species. 2015 was a wet year. We need more variability in the data to make better predictions. Unlike the BBS/CBC, IMBCR is not free. However, results are far more informative.  

- Conclusion - Strengths of the IMBCR program We can pool detections for small installations with few detections. Detections can also be pooled for rare species and Bayesian methods need fewer detections. Comparisons to locations/regions off the installation helps explain the status in a given year. Occupancy and population size. Not an index! Annual monitoring in all locations is not necessary. IMBCR can help NRMs and biologists assess effects of activities and measure success of habitat modification projects (e.g., BASH)  

Questions? Nick Van Lanen, Bird Conservancy of the Rockies Nick.VanLanen@birdconservancy.org (970) 482-1707 x28 Clark Jones, USFWS, Pueblo Chemical Depot Clark_Jones@fws.gov (719) 661-6769