The ‘Accidental Middlemen’ Nuclear Umbrella States and the Humanitarian Initiative

From The Humanitarian Initiative... Humanitarian initiative born around 2012. Focus on humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons. Take control of conversation Improve awareness/planning Delegitimize, stigmatize Put pressure on NWS Driven by a few: Norway, Austria, Mexico, Civil society

115 - 150 ... To A Nuclear Ban Austrian Pledge  Humanitarian Pledge 127 signatories Open-ended working group on nuclear disarmament Final Report August 2016: “A majority of States expressed support for the commencement of negotiations in the General Assembly 2017 ... On a legally-binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons” Predicting support: Countries part of NWFZ (ex. Australia) EU split (Austria and Ireland pro ban) NAM split? (US allies) 115 - 150

Nuclear Umbrella States Who? NATO states Japan South Korea Australia Against a ban, but with some difficulty Between disarmament and deterrence Public attention, active domestic debate over merits of deterrence Caught in the crossfire? Role played so far Took part in humanitarian impact discourse Participated in Open-Ended Working Group

Nuclear Umbrella States Germany, statement at the Mexico Conference Everything should be done to further strengthen the “nuclear taboo” As important as the humanitarian dimension is there is also a security dimension to nuclear weapons. Pressing forward without the Nuclear Weapon States today is not the best strategy for tangible progress

Nuclear Umbrella States Norway, explaining its abstention to Humanitarian Pledge The humanitarian initiative has now been undermined, and the initiative is by many associated with efforts to achieve a legal instrument banning nuclear weapons. Norway is not able to support resolutions that we and our NATO allies see as part of a package resulting in a further polarisation of the international community.

Nuclear Umbrella States Australia, forcing a vote in the Open-Ended Working Group A simple Ban Treaty would not facilitate the reduction in one nuclear weapon. It might even harden the resolve of those possessing nuclear weapons not to reduce their arsenals

Japan “Nuclear disarmament must be promoted based on two basic understandings, the first being a clear understanding of the humanitarian impacts” Survivors of the 1945 nuclear bombings Plays an active role in disarmament efforts Domestic politics “and the second being the objective assessment of the reality of the security environment” Subscribes to logic of deterrence US nuclear umbrella Reality of regional security concerns

The Ban Treaty Negotiations Should they participate? Probably... Ban is black and white issue Umbrella states would likely represent P5 Different objectives going into negotiations

The Ban Treaty Negotiations Yes How? Bridge-builder or break? Support the process to push for a simpler treaty? Negotiating format

The Ban Treaty Negotiations No Consequences Two groups of states will emerge Ban could dissipate ... ...Or propel out of control

The Role of an Accidental Middleman “A person who helps two people or groups to deal with and communicate with each other when they are not able or willing to do it themselves”

The Role of an Accidental Middleman Thank You EmilD@rusi.org