The UK climate change strategy – where is it going? Can it work? Dr Peter Boait Director GCEC and Visiting Research Fellow at DMU October 2018

Where are we on the path to 80% reduction by 2050? Transport and homes are lagging behind

In terms of share of emissions: (Agriculture, landfill, etc

The big challenges from the pie chart are: Decarbonisation of heat Transport Electricity generation Agriculture In reviewing policy for each of these, I’m including both actual policy (“The Green Growth Strategy”) and the recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change

Can it work? Looks reasonable to me…… Natural resources policy: Grow forests Cut landfill and capture more of the methane Reform agricultural practice to improve carbon capture Restore peatland Cattle emissions part of the irreducible minimum Can it work? Looks reasonable to me……

Electricity policy – has to deliver up to 3 times existing capacity : Offshore wind – at least 10-15 GW to come. Lots of smart storage and demand response Solar as facilitated by smart storage Replace existing nuclear capacity – but unlikely to happen Close down coal – already well advanced Carbon capture on natural gas with fuel cells and Allam cycle gas turbines Actual generation mix on Sunday 11 Nov 18

Allam cycle gas turbine – generates electricity from natural gas and produces high pressure CO2 ready for capture in empty oil and gas wells, at 59% efficiency. 50MW plant operational in Texas, 300MW by 2020.

Fuel Cells. With steam methane reforming into a hydrogen grid and carbon capture, we can have local electricity generation that is complementary to PV over the winter: hydrogen powered fuel cell boilers.

Electricity demand response and energy storage. Essential to match demand with variable supply from wind and solar using smart controls Use storage heaters, home batteries, water tanks, etc. Big contribution from electric cars – typically 30-100 kWh of capacity, little used day to day National smart meter system makes this possible but needs explaining to gain popular support

Decarbonisation of transport Obviously battery EVs – perfect solution for car transport, helps the electricity system. But too big and heavy for freight and public transport, so: Hydrogen fuel cells for buses, trains and lorries, supplied from hydrogen grid Just need more regulatory pressure!

Decarbonisation of heat Improved insulation – all homes to Band C by 2030 New homes to be “passivhaus” – but is this suitable for the UK climate? Replace some gas and all oil boilers with heat pumps Supply remaining gas boilers from the hydrogen grid A late Victorian house at Band C. But still needs 20,000 kWh per year – 55% reduction from 1990

To implement current policy, the challenges are SUMMARY To implement current policy, the challenges are 1 – generating 100% zero carbon electricity and a lot more of it. 2 – replacing all our gas boilers with a zero carbon solution. 3. – Replacing the transport fleet with battery and hydrogen vehicles A hydrogen grid fed by carbon capture from natural gas is essential to 2 and 3 and helps 1. The Leeds trial will (I hope) show that it is doable. Battery electric cars with smart charging are essential to 1 in allowing the electricity grid to absorb more wind and solar The current policy direction can work, but we need to persuade politicians and the British public to get on with it !! Time is running out………