Examining the future forest through tree seedling experiments Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative Nicholas Fisichelli, Ph.D. Forest Ecology Director December 14, 2018

Change and Uncertainties Janowiak et al. 2018 NCA 2018

We need more on-the-ground experiments Change and Uncertainties Janowiak et al. 2018 NCA 2018 We need more on-the-ground experiments

Seedlings are the forest future Species able to establish, persist, grow, and recruit into larger size classes are likely to form the future overstory Lots of selective pressures Warming temperatures, Too much water, Hot droughts, Frost, Too much shade, Too many deer, Non-native species, N deposition, Too many competitors, Space is limited Species able to establish, persist, grow, and recruit into larger size classes are likely to form the future overstory

Seedlings are the forest future Species able to establish, persist, grow, and recruit into larger size classes are likely to form the future overstory Overarching research questions: What drives seedling performance? How are seedlings responding to multiple global change pressures? -warming temperatures -climate variability: drought -non-native species -deer browse Lots of selective pressures Warming temperatures, Too much water, Hot droughts, Frost, Too much shade, Too many deer, Non-native species, N deposition, Too many competitors, Space is limited Species able to establish, persist, grow, and recruit into larger size classes are likely to form the future overstory

-use observational field studies and controlled experiments Growth chamber studies Field experiments Observational field studies

Seedling diversity decreases with warming and time Field experiment Seedling diversity decreases with warming and time B4WarmED Wright et al. 2018.

Field experiment Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain Cadillac Summit High 454 m elev Mid 300 m elev Low 100 m elev Ocean Maritime 23 m elev

Field experiment Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain 2.3 ° C summer temperature gradient Cadillac Summit High 17.4 °C 8.7 % Soil H2O Mid 17.8 °C 8.1 % Soil H2O Low 18.3 °C 6.0 % Soil H2O Ocean Maritime 16.0 °C 16.5 % Soil H2O

Field experiment Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain Cadillac Summit High 17.4 °C 8.7 % Soil H2O Mid 17.8 °C 8.1 % Soil H2O Low 18.3 °C 6.0 % Soil H2O Ocean Maritime 16.0 °C 16.5 % Soil H2O

Field experiment Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain Cadillac Summit High Mid Low Ocean Maritime Preliminary analyses (yr 2 of 3-yr study)

Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain Field experiment Acadia National Park – Cadillac Mountain Low (fewest seedlings: 19) Marine (most seedlings: 475)

Common Campus Tree Experiment -common garden experiment at Field experiment Common Campus Tree Experiment -common garden experiment at 8 education campuses -12 tree species Co-PIs: Andrew Barton, Justin Becknell, Dylan Dillaway, Eric Jones, Thomas Klak, Neil Thompson, YongJiang (John) Zhang Andrew Barton, University of Maine, Farmington Justin Becknell, Colby College Dylan Dillaway, Unity College Eric Jones, University of Maine, Machias Thomas Klak, University of New England Neil Thompson, University of Maine, Fort Kent YongJiang (John) Zhang, University of Maine, Orono

The Future Field experiment A coordinated network of sites across a large climate gradient conducting seedling experiments Interested? Contact me: NFisichelli@SchoodicInstitute.org

Take Homes Seedlings are responsive to small shifts in climate and interacting global change pressures -warming temperatures -climate variability: drought and late spring frost -non-native species (plants, pests, and earthworms) -deer browse These responses can have lasting effects to future overstory composition (trees spend decades in the canopy) – potential for a depauperate overstory (low diversity) We need more field experiments! Coordinated network of experiments Engage learners of all ages in these experiments (citizen science)

Thank You Nicholas Fisichelli NFisichelli@SchoodicInstitute.org www.schoodicinstitute.org/about/forest-ecology-program/