3rd Growth and Resilience Dialogue Building Resilient Institutions and Infrastructure for Sustained Growth 14 February 2019

Transforming The ECCU Together Key Message Global growth for 2019 and 2020 have been revised downwards to 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together Key Messages Downside risks are rising and include: Ongoing trade tensions Tightening of financial conditions China slowdown BREXIT Climate change Crime Venezuela situation 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Post-hurricanes Economic Recovery Continues Notes on GDP Chart: Pr - Preliminary Est- Estimate Pj - Projection Sources: ECCU Central Statistical Offices and Eastern Caribbean Central Bank 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Further Slippage in ECCU Countries’ Competitiveness The World Bank’s Doing Business 2019 report was released in October 2018 and ranked 190 economies. The 2018 report also ranked 190 economies. The relative positions of the 6 ECCU economies remained unchanged between the 2018 and 2019 rankings. Every one of the 6 ranked ECCU countries slipped in their ranking in the 2019 report compared with the 2018 report: -Antigua and Barbuda slipped 5 positions -Dominica slipped 5 positions -Grenada slipped 5 positions -St Kitts and Nevis slipped 6 positions -Saint Lucia slipped 2 positions -St Vincent and the Grenadines slipped 1 position -ECCU average deteriorated by 4 points Sources: World Bank, Doing Business 2018; 2019 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

In 2018, there was a reversal of the downward path towards the Debt-to-GDP Ratio target of 60.0 per cent Notes P – preliminary data The 2017 and 2018 data are preliminary at the moment while further investigations are made into the data. Compared with previously reported debt data (specifically, those reported to the Board in January 2019), please note the following: The historical data (2012 – 2016) remain unchanged. 2017 debt-to-GDP ratio has been revised upwards from 69.5 per cent to 70.3 per cent. The revision is due, in part, to revisions in the GDP data. Also, there appears to be a big upward change in Antigua’s 2017 debt-to-GDP ratio (from 78.5 per cent to 82.0 per cent). This change is still being investigated by SD. Sources: ECCB; ECCU CSOs 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together High Level of Non-Performing Loans is a source of vulnerability in our financial sector Notes: Neither Anguilla nor Montserrat has an active credit union sector (Montserrat’s credit union is insolvent) and so are not represented in the ECCU data. Sources: SRUs; ECCB 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together The productive sectors receive less than half of commercial banks’ credit 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together Outcome of IMF 2018 Common Policies Mission The IMF concluded its 2018 regional surveillance mission and identified the following policy issues: Fiscal responsibility frameworks; Ex-ante resilience and investment in resilient infrastructure; Regulatory framework for financial sector; and Structural reforms to improve competitiveness – energy, labour market and education. 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together The EC $ remains strong 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together ECCU Strategic Goals Transforming the ECCU Together 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together Selected ECCB Strategic Initiatives Fiscal Resilience Framework Credit Bureau EC Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme Fintech Pilot ECCU Electronic Conveyancing System Project 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together

Transforming The ECCU Together THANK YOU 4/3/2019 Transforming The ECCU Together