COAMPS Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Developed by FNMOC and NRL (1996) Operational - MEL/FNMOC Experimental - NRL-MRY 27 km Spatial.

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Presentation transcript:

COAMPS Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Developed by FNMOC and NRL (1996) Operational - MEL/FNMOC Experimental - NRL-MRY 27 km Spatial Resolution 6 hr Temporal Resolution 48 hr forecast issued twice daily Year Round 6 km Spatial Resolution 30 min Temporal Resolution 72 hr forecast issued twice weekly Summer 2001

COAMPS Technical Information Operational (OP) Experimental (EXP)

Experimental COAMPS: Grids Regional Model Horizontal Resolution: Triple-nested: 54 km x 18 km x 6 km Vertical resolution: approximately 30 Sigma levels 54 KM Wind time-series at LEO from 6 km Experimental COAMPS Forecast 18 KM 6 KM

COAMPS at LEO Pressure and Wind Fields: July 27, 2001 00Z Operational Experimental Data provided via FTP from MEL (Master Environmental Laboratory) 27 km spatial resolution 6 hour temporal resolution Regional Synoptic/Mesoscale Model Data provided via FTP from NRL-MRY 6 km spatial resolution 30 min temporal resolution Regional Mesoscale Model

Ensemble Forecast: Cycle 3 Operational COAMPS Operational NOGAPS Experimental COAMPS

Case Studies Cycle 2- Sea Breeze - July 17-18, 2001 00Z Cycle 6 - Nor’easter - July 31, 2001 00Z

The New Jersey Sea Breeze Develops late afternoon during weak synoptic flow Sea Breeze front moves inland till just after sunset Front observed by NWS Doppler Radar Offshore Winds Sea Breeze Front Onshore Winds

Sea Breeze Mesoscale Event Cycle 2 - July 18th 00Z, 48 hour forecast Seabreeze frontal passage at 1800Z Light NNW wind increased to SE 10-15 knots Front moved inland approximately 25-30 km Seabreeze Front NWS Radar 07/17 22Z Seabreeze Front NO Seabreeze OP 48 hr forecast 07/18 00Z EXP 48 hr forecast 07/18 00Z

Nor’easter Synoptic-Scale Event Cycle 6 - July 31st 00Z, 48 hour forecast Biggest Storm of the Experiment 30 knot ENE Winds 10-12 ft Seas Heavy Rains OP Analysis 07/31 00Z OP 48 hr forecast 07/31 00Z EXP 48 hr forecast 07/31 00Z

Atmospheric Model Validation Time Series Comparisons - Observations - Experimental COAMPS (EXP) - Operational COAMPS (OP) - Operational NOGAPS (NGP) - RUC Analyses Variables - Wind Speed and Direction - Barometric Pressure - Relative Humidity - Temperature Locations Over water -NOAA Buoys Over Land - NWS ASOS At the coast - Tuckerton Products - Plots - RMS Difference - Average Error http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/hycode2/forecast.html CYCLE 3: July 18 - July 21, 2001 Wind Vectors : Tuckerton | 44009 | BLM | ACY | WWD Temperature: Tuckerton | BLM | ACY | PHL | EWR

LEO 2001 Weather Summary

Tuckerton Wind Direction Average Error (deg)

FAIR Seabreeze Nor’easter Seabreeze FAIR Nor’easter Heat Wave Heat Wave

Tuckerton Wind Direction RMS Error (deg)

FAIR Seabreeze Nor’easter Seabreeze FAIR Nor’easter Heat Wave Heat Wave

Tuckerton Wind Speed Average Error (m/s)

FAIR Seabreeze Nor’easter Seabreeze FAIR Nor’easter Heat Wave Heat Wave

Tuckerton Wind Speed RMS Error (m/s)

FAIR Seabreeze Nor’easter Seabreeze FAIR Nor’easter Heat Wave Heat Wave

Tuckerton, NJ All Forecast Cycles (1-8) RMS Errors