NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Nuclear Expansion Issues Oxford Analytica China Technical Hurdles may block nuclear power plants

Overview China has the world's largest fleet of new nuclear plants Country plans to increase its nuclear energy capacity more than fivefold over next 15 years One of the few countries to be adding capacity while expansion has largely stalled in Europe, US, and Japan Chinese companies have also started to sign deals with other countries to build plants there

China Nuclear History I China's first nuclear plants began commercial operation in 1994 The two French units and one indigenous had a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts (GW) out of around 200 GW total national power generating capacity At the end of 2015 nuclear power met around 2% of China's electricity needs A decision in 2005 to increase the role of nuclear energy was motivated by need for security of supply Economy was booming Energy demand was rising by more than 15% per year, and Blackouts across the country were due to shortage of generating capacity

China Nuclear History II By 2010 21 reactors were under construction with a total capacity of 21 GW and A further 36 units planned totaling about 40 GW Most of these were CPR-1000s, a Chinese design based on French second-generation technology Targets for total nuclear capacity by 2020 ran as high as 80GW

China Nuclear Post Fukushima I In response to Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011 the government Suspended all construction of nuclear power plants Inspected all those in operation and under construction and Launched a review of its nuclear power strategy The review led to a five-year plan for nuclear safety which included improving Safety of existing reactors and Emergency response mechanisms

China Nuclear Post Fukushima II In addition Cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency was enhanced to support safety management Government reduced the capacity target for 2020 to 58 GW (from 80 GW) and Blocked proposals to site plants inland The generation II+ CPR-1000 design was to be phased out in favor of Westinghouse's generation III+ AP1000 design along with other advanced designs such as France's EPR VVER 1000 and China's own Hualong One.

China Nuclear Post Fukushima III The government lifted the construction moratorium in October 2012 By the beginning of 2016, China had 30 units operating totaling 27 GFW with a further 27GW under construction More than 40 GW are planned and the target capacity for 2013 remains at 150 GW

Environmental Urgency Decision to continue the expansion of nuclear energy driven as much by environmental concerns as those relating to security of supply Not only was the government becoming progressively more committed to constraining greenhouse gas emissions It was also pressed by popular outrage at worsening air quality arising from coal and oil consumption Nuclear energy would provide a substantial supplemet to the growing capacity of hydroelectricity and wind power to provide large amounts of low-carbon energy

Nuclear Exports I Renewal of construction within China was accompanied by efforts by its nuclear power companies to internationalize Three companies have agreements or potential opportunities to build new plants overseas China General Nuclear Power Corporation (GCN) China National Nuclear Corporation (GNNC) and State Power Investment

Nuclear Exports II Host countries include Pakistan Rumania Argentina Turkey, South Africa, and The United Kingdom (Hinkley Point and perhaps Bradwell) China plans to build around 30 nuclear power units in "One Belt, One Road" countries by 2030

China Nuclear Challenges I To realize its nuclear ambitions, China must overcome a number of serious challenges: Regulatory capacity China's nuclear energy companies have expended considerable effort over a number of years on training and growth their workforces, However key government agencies are understaffed Safety and Security cultures Training sufficient staff in government and industry is one task Developing a working culture that fully embraces safety and security is another China's track record for safety and security management appears to meet international standards, but rapid expansion of capacity will test both systems and cultures

China Nuclear Challenges II Emergency Preparedness Government white paper published in January 2016 admitted that preparedness for a major nuclear accident is inadequate Public Option Public opinion has not been gauged reliably Most information on public attitudes is anecdotal and includes unsubstantiated reports of local objections to the construction of nuclear facilities However one well documented case occurred in Guangdong Province in 2013 when local protests forced the government to cancel plans to build nuclear enrichment plant there

China Nuclear Challenges III Technological challenges Most serious challenge relates to the technology being deployed in some of the plants already under construction and most of those planned All generation III+ designs are untested Even if they proceed to operation, the capital costs and construction times are certain to exceed original estimates by a wide margin The industry's ability to operationalize these untested designs at acceptable cost will determine its future both at home and abroad.