Fiscal and Economic Issues Discussion Group

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Presentation transcript:

Fiscal and Economic Issues Discussion Group August 2017 Meeting

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues When we review policy issues we ask: How will this policy issue affect economic growth and jobs? How will this policy issue affect the budget deficit, both now and in the future? We have spent a lot of time examining economic growth, job growth and budget issues at the national level We started looking at the Illinois budget more in 2015

We have had Real GDP Growth Since June 2009

Private Jobs Growth Since March 2010

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it’s only starting to feel like full recovery, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment Rate

10 months

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1672/Satisfaction-Personal-Life.aspx

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The Federal Budget Deficit – The issue is increasing deficits in future years https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Fiscal Year Totals (billions of dollars) Bush Budget Years Obama Budget Years Fiscal Years 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (est) Receipts 2,524 2,105 2,163 2,303 2,449 2,774 3,021 3,249 3,267 3,404 % of GDP 17.0% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9% 15.3% 16.7% 17.5% 18.3% 17.8% Outlays 2,983 3,518 3,457 3,603 3,538 3,454 3,506 3,759 3,854 3,963 20.1% 24.4% 23.5% 23.3% 22.1% 20.8% 20.3% 20.7% 20.9% Deficit -459 -1,413 -1,294 -1,300 -1,089 -680 -485 -439 -587 -559 -3.1% -9.8% -8.8% -8.4% -6.8% -4.1% -2.8% -2.5% -3.2% -2.9%

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

Social Security Trust Fund will run short in FY 2034 The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will run short in FY 2028 The longer we ignore these future shortfalls, the more painful the solutions will be. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

Jobs in Illinois (Non-Farm / 000’s)

Illinois Job Growth - Fiscal Years 2009 - 2017