Snow cover trends and climate change scenarios in mountainous regions of Slovakia in 1951-2100 JOZEF PECHO MILAN LAPIN PAVEL FAŠKO PAVEL ŠŤASTNÝ Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia

STUDY ON SNOW COVER TRENDS Orava & Kysuce Region 600-1200 m a.sl. Or-Kc The Low Tatras Region 1000-2000 m a.s.l. HT LT The High Tatras Region 850-2000 m a.s.l. Winter 1980/81-2009/10 SCD sum FSCD sum SCD days Precipitation Air Temperature Climate Scenarios 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

SNOW COVER CLIMATOLOGY HT OR-KC LT SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

SNOW COVER CHANGES IN EUROPE (NH) MODIS DATA (2001-2011) Source: Dietz et al. 2012 The Carpathians (SVK) Source: Brown and Robinson, 2011, etc. Source: IPCC AR5 2013 SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017 WINTER 2016/2017 Precipitation totals [% of 1961-90 normal] in winter 2016/2017 Temperature anomaly [°C] in winter 2016/2017 Or-Kc HT LT Temperature anomaly [°C] in winter 1962/1963 Temperature anomaly [°C] in winter 1963/1964 SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF (VERY) COLD WINTERS Temperature anomaly [°C] in winter months DJF February 2012 January 2017 SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

TEMPERATURE CHANGES [in WINTER] Extremely warm WINTERS 2013/14-2015/16 SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

CLIMATE CHANGE SINCE 1951 Air Temperature Trends in Winter SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

SNOW COVER PROBABILITY Source: Vojtek, 2010 SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

RESULTS I – SNOW COVER TRENDS SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

RESULTS I – AIR TEMPERATURE TRENDS / SCENARIOS KC OR ALTITUDE ALTITUDE HT LT ALTITUDE SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

RESULTS II – PRECIPITATION TRENDS / SCENARIOS KC OR ALTITUDE ALTITUDE HT LT ALTITUDE SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

RESULTS III – SNOW COVER TRENDS / SCENARIOS KC OR ALTITUDE ALTITUDE HT LT ALTITUDE SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

RESULTS IV – SNOW COVER SCENARIOS KC OR ALTITUDE ALTITUDE HT LT ALTITUDE SNOW – an ecologycal phenomenon – SMOLENICE 2017

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION JOZEF PECHO MILAN LAPIN PAVEL FAŠKO, PAVEL ŠŤASTNÝ Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia