Coastal Atmospheric Modeling for both Operational and Research Applications using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model.

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Presentation transcript:

Coastal Atmospheric Modeling for both Operational and Research Applications using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model

Weather Research Forecast Model Developed by NCAR/MMM and NOAA/FSL Released as community research model (2000) Developed for research and operational purposes Operational-test phase NWS model Intended full operational use by March 2006 Arakawa C-grid 3rd order Runge-Kutta Technique Mass-based terrain following coordinate Output as netcdf or GRIB Model graphics displayed using the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS)

Weather Research Forecast Model Run experimentally Apr 2004, operationally May 2005 Run locally on a Dell Workstation (1 CPU), 3.1 GHz, 4 GB RAM Redhat Linux 9, PGI Fortran Compiler 5.0 Once daily 6 km run (1800 Z), once daily 20 km run (0600 Z) Hourly data output Funded by PSEG (NJ’s largest electric and gas provider) Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Lin et al. Microphysics Dudhia SW and rrtm LW Radiation Noah Land Surface Model 6 km initialized with NAM boundary conditions 20 km initialized with GFS boundary conditions SST from NOAA 1/12° RTG_SST_HR Analysis

Operational WRF 6 km – 0600Z Daily - 48 HR FC

Operational WRF 20 km – 1800Z Daily – 72 HR FC

Experimental Hires-WRF 3 km 1200Z Daily 48 HR FC Run locally on a Penguin Server (2 CPU), 3.3 GHz, 4 GB RAM Redhat Workstation 3, IFC Fortran Compiler 8.1 Initialized with NAM boundary conditions

WRF Operational Validation

WRF Research Applications – LaTTE 2005 WRF model was run at 6 km resolution once daily for LaTTE WRF simulations led to accurate predictions of wind shifts, both large and small scale Model output validated using observational data from Ambrose Tower (ALSN6) and compared to NAM 22 km output Ambrose Tower

Ambrose Tower NAM (ETA) 22km Bias: 2.07 m/s WRF-hires 6km RMS: 2.90 m/s WRF-hires 6km Bias: 0.60 m/s RMS: 1.89 m/s

Ambrose Tower NAM (ETA) 22km WRF-hires 6km Sea Breeze Nor’easter

Coastal Storm The coastal storm is resolved by both the 6 km WRF and 22 km NAM

Atmospheric Modeling Sea Breeze The sea breeze is resolved by the 6 km WRF and not by the 22 km NAM

WRF Sea Breeze Validation New Jersey

WRF Sea Breeze Validation Long Island

Sea Breeze Sensitivity to SST 15 C Case 17 C Case

Wind Vector Difference at 2200 GMT A SST difference of 2°C results in an additional inland penetration of the sea breeze of 18-24 km Geographical configuration influences the inland penetration of the sea breeze front 15 C SST 17 C SST

15°C vs 17°C SST-Sea Breeze Cross-section Comparison

15 C SST 17 C SST meters meters Top of Sea Breeze Top of Sea Breeze Coastline Coastline

Quality of Sea Surface Temperature Analyses for WRF Modeling

Concluding Remarks High-resolution atmospheric modeling using the WRF model has been shown to accurately predict both large and small scale atmospheric phenomena The local sea breeze impacts both the shoreline as well as the offshore coastal waters Accurate and timely Sea Surface Temperature is required to adequately simulate the sea breeze circulation A coupled ocean-atmosphere model would provide updated SST to the WRF simulations, leading to more accurate feedbacks between the sea breeze and the ocean surface, which would to lead to even more realistic forecasts of the sea breeze