Topic 2, group 3: How do we best communicate the magnitude and inevitability of uncertainty in order to support policy makers in dealing with climate-related risks? 1 1

Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication Function Sender Transmitter Receiver 2 2

Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication Social & political context (India, China, etc) Typical actor Sender Science Transmitter Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Receiver 3 3

Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication Social & political context (India, China, etc) Sources of distortions: Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Sender Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Transmitter Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests Receiver 4 After Creutzig/Markowitz 2013 4

Reducing uncertainty propagation Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 5 5

Reducing uncertainty propagation: direct communication Directly addressing policymakers AND civil society (information symmetry!) via open access web-based information Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 6 e.g. Kit/Lüdeke 2013 6

Reducing uncertainty propagation: better communication Directly addressing policymakers AND civil society (information symmetry!) via open access web-based information Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science Representation ad-apted to receiver with concrete examples Combining general statements „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Good science journalism Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 7 e.g. Kit/Lüdeke 2013 7

Reducing uncertainty propagation: participation Direct involvement of stakeholders/decision makers into the science process reduces the role of scientific uncertainty as alibi for non-action Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science Representation ad-apted to receiver with concrete examples Combining general statements „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Good science journalism Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 8 e.g. Aicher/Beck 2013 8