A novel approach to monitoring shipping emissions in the digital age jdtjane@gmail.com Dan Jane shipping emissions in the digital age Introduction In the EU alone, atmospheric pollution from shipping emissions has been estimated to cause around 680,000 premature deaths a year3. To reduce shipping emissions the International Maritime Organisation introduced fuel quality limits in 2012, but enforce- ment has been hampered by a lack of effective national regulation1. Non-compliance rates near ports are as high as 10%, and there are currently no methods of monitoring the quality of fuel at sea2. To overcome these problems we envisage the global real-time monitoring of pollution emissions at sea to detect non-compliance of fuel quality regulations. We propose a low cost solution using data from existing satellites, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data on ship locations, and cutting edge AI. Note that the historical data from this project can be used for retrospective prosecution as well as for future watch-lists. Methods We can estimate fuel consumption rates using AIS data6 and atmospheric pollutant concentrations using satellite data4. Using this information we infer fuel composition and non-compliance with fuel quality regulations.We considered a range of exhaust gases from shipping. For this feasibility project sulphur dioxide (SO2) was chosen as it is a pollutant that causes serious respiratory health issues; it has a long half-life in the environment; the amount of SO2 emitted by a ship is a direct function of the sulphur content of its fuel; there are strict limits on the sulphur content of ship fuel; there are no (large) natural sources other than volcanoes; and SO2 can be detected by the Aura satellite at a high resolution. the Aura satellite The Aura satellite4 was launched in 2004 and completes a near polar orbit every 100 minutes. It detects SO2 at a resolution of 13km by 24 km. Results We show that the Aura satellite can detect SO2 being produced by a given ship as it crosses the Pacific. To avoid marine collisions, all significant ships must have a public transponder which identifies their position5. This system is called the AIS. We sample the amount of SO2 detected in the Pacific, and use the AIS to determine whether or not the boat was nearby. Then we use a likelihood test to determine whether the subsamples come from the same exponential distribution. SO2 detected by Aura in 2014 Next steps Set up global coverage with real-time monitoring. Implement algorithm to estimate fuel quality from emissions. Work with stakeholders to make the best use of this data, and so end non-compliance of fuel regulations. Start saving some of those 680,000 people! Literature cited Enforcement Issues in the Governance of Ships’ Carbon Emissions, M. Bloor et al, Laws 4 (3) 2015, 335–351. Remote Measurements of Gas and Particulate Matter Emissions from Individual Ships, J. Beecken, PhD Thesis, 2015. Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe, J. Brandt et al, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2013, 13, 7747–7764. OMI Science Team(2012), OMI/Aura Level 2 Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Trace Gas Column Data 1-Orbit subset Swath along CloudSat track 1-Orbit Swath 13x24 km, Edited by GES DISC, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), Accessed 13 March 2018. Exploiting AIS Data for Intelligent Maritime Navigation: A Comprehensive Survey, E. Tu et al, IEEE Trans. Int. Trans. Sys. PP (99) June 2016. An AIS-based approach to calculate atmospheric emissions from the UK fishing fleet, J. Coello et al, Atmospheric Environment 114, 1–7August 2015.