Stepping on Earth: A Roadmap for Data-driven Agent-Based Modelling Samer Hassan Luis Antunes Juan Pavón Nigel Gilbert University of Surrey Universidad Complutense de Madrid Universidade de Lisboa

The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Contents The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Data-driven Flow Difficulties Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Classical Logic of Simulation Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Simplicity is helpful: Classical Paradigm Axelrod’s KISS Occam’s razor Simplicity is helpful: Transmitting the model Promoting understanding Promoting extensibility Abstract models -> more general? Easier to design, analyse and check Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Contents The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Data-driven Flow Difficulties Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Data-driven Modelling Use of empirical data Instead of standard distributions Attempt to be more realistic Getting closer to the target Increasing complexity of the models Against the KISS paradigm Strongly linked to the intense use of the data available Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

A Well-known Alternative Edmonds & Moss’ KIDS: Design the most similar model to the target Analyse the model to see which parts could be simplified while preserving the behaviour With further simplifications, it could be used in several contexts with assured good foundations Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

A New Perspective According to KISS, complexity should only increases when difficulties are met ‘Deepening’ KISS: Begin with KISS Through the use of evidence and especially data, a collection of models can be developed and explored With the design space (of agents, societies and experiments) explored, the best features of each model can be used to design a stronger model Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

The Classical View Breaking the Rules Handling Data Data-driven Flow Contents The Classical View Breaking the Rules Handling Data Data-driven Flow Difficulties Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Statistical Distributions ‘Let’s assume that salaries follow a Gamma distribution’ Real data closer than standard distributions Distributions are static Not necessary more general Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Representative sample from target population? Surveys Handling data Representative sample from target population? Surveys Survey’s questions not phrased in the right way for the researcher’s interests Compromises Unlikely including interconnections and interactions between sample members Networks? Inherently qualitative data? Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

How to deal with dynamical processes? Handling data How to deal with dynamical processes? Panel studies Ethnography Usual activities recording Official documents Internet records Before extra efforts Check what’s out there! National Data Archives Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Contents The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Data-driven Flow Difficulties Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Proposal for Data-Driven ABM Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

The Data-driven Flow Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Technologies can help Typical smooth behaviour ->Soft computing Neural Networks for adaptive learning behaviours Fuzzy Logic for modelling social processes Evolutionary algorithms can optimise agent behaviour Search for patterns and clusters in the input and output Classifiers and Data Mining Representation of concepts Ontologies represent an easy-to-handle interface with experts, and a formal view that can be inserted in the ABM Natural Language Processing for a better representation of the simulation output Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Contents The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data Data-driven Flow Difficulties Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Difficulties Sometimes, a KISS model is enough Ease of understanding & communication of KISS is partially lost Modularity ‘Deepening’ stages lead to understanding Demands special effort in gathering data Addressed difficulties related to the procedures: surveys not providing the required data; lack of information; qualitative or subjective data Technologies should only be used in their certain context Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Thanks for your attention! Samer Hassan samer@fdi.ucm.es University of Surrey Universidad Complutense de Madrid Universidade de Lisboa Samer Hassan ESSA 2008

Contents License This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ You are free to copy, modify and distribute it as long as the original work and author are cited Samer Hassan ESSA 2008