Together or apart? Attitudes towards multi-ethnic state and ethnically mixed communities in post-independence Kosovo. Artjoms (Tom) Ivļevs University of the West of England and University of Nottingham Roswitha M. King Østfold University College and University of Latvia Western Balkans: Poverty and Inclusion Brussels, December 14-15, 2010

Motivation The independent State of Kosovo was proclaimed in February 2008 The State of Kosovo was concieved as a “multiethnic” country where “the members of (ethnic) communities have the right to freely express, foster and develop their identity and community attributes” “the State ensures appropriate conditions enabling communities, and their members to preserve, protect and develop their identities Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo

Questions What do Kosovars themselves think about the viability of their nation as a multiethnic state? Is there a difference in attitudes towards multiethnic state between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs? Do factors like age, income, education affect the attitudes towards multiethnic state?

Independence: for many - a dream come true ...

A disappointment for others ...

Plan Background information Data Methodology Results Conclusion

Ethnic diversity in Kosovo Albanians – 88% Serbs – 6% Other minorities (Gorani, Turkish, Bosnian, Ashkali , Roma… ) – 6%

The survey The survey was carried out by Ipsos Strategic Puls (regional HQ in Belgrade)in June 2008 Timing: 4 months after the declaration of independence; calmer political circumstances The survey addressed various questions related to migration, remittances and attitudes about the multiethnic state and the EU membership 1367 face-to-face interviews: 845 with ethnic Albanians 482 with ethnic Serbs (Serb sub-sample boosted) 40 with other ethnic minorities (Turkish, Bosniak, Ashkali and Roma).

Main questions “Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?” No Probably no Probably yes Yes “Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?” Better live separately Better live in mixed areas

“Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?” Whole sample* (n = 1367) Ethnic Albanians (n = 845) Ethnic Serbs (n = 482) Non-Serb minorities (n = 40) No 8.92 % 5.44 % 66.39 % 2.50 % Probably no 5.45 % 5.80 % 5.81 % 0.00% Probably yes 39.77 % 42.96 % 7.68 % 25.00 % Yes 40.72 % 40.95 % 8.09 % 70.00 % No answer/ don’t know 5.14 % 4.85 % 12.03 %

Non-Serb minorities (n = 40) “Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?” Whole sample* (n = 1367) Ethnic Albanians (n = 845) Ethnic Serbs (n = 482) Non-Serb minorities (n = 40) Better live separately 22.83 % 20.83 % 69.92 % 5.00 % Better live in mixed areas 68.54 % 71.48 % 8.92 % 85.00% No answer/ don’t know 8.64 % 7.69 % 21.16 % 10.00 %

The model Pro_multi_ethnici = α * ethnicityi + β * socio-demographic characteristicsi + γ * district fixed effectsj + unobserved error termi Pro_co_locationi = α * ethnicityi + β * socio-demographic characteristicsi + γ * district fixed effectsj + Ordered and multinomial probit models Estimate the models for the whole sample (ethnically weighted), and separately for ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs

Explanatory variables Ethnicity Albanian Serb Non-Serb minority Age Male Married Has children under 18 6 income levels 3 education levels Student Unemployed Lives in rural area 5 district dummies South East South West Central North North West

Whole sample (ethnically weighted) Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state? Ordered probit marginal effects Whole sample (ethnically weighted) No Probably no Probably yes Yes Ethnicity Albanian Ref. Serb 0.670*** 0.059*** -0.284*** -0.445*** Non-Serb minority -0.060*** -0.049*** -0.216*** 0.325*** Age/10 -0.011*** -0.007** -0.016*** 0.034*** Male 0.013 0.008 0.020 -0.041 Married 0.018 -0.039 Has child(ren) 0.002 0.001 0.003 -0.006 Income No income 0.012 0.007 0.016 -0.035 < 50 EUR 50-150 EUR -0.016 -0.010 -0.027 0.053 150-300 EUR -0.033** -0.023** -0.068* 0.124* >300 EUR -0.045*** -0.034** -0.124* 0.204** Income non reported -0.218*** 0.327***

Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state? Ordered probit marginal effects Whole sample (ethnically weighted) No Probably no Probably yes Yes Education Primary Ref. Secondary -0.024* -0.015* -0.036* 0.074* Tertiary -0.021 -0.014 -0.038 0.073 Student -0.041*** -0.030*** -0.097** 0.168** Unemployed -0.038*** -0.026*** -0.079*** 0.143*** Lives in rural area -0.016 -0.010 -0.023 0.048 District South-East South-West 0.004 0.002 0.005 -0.011 Central -0.003 -0.002 -0.004 0.009 North 0.068** 0.037*** 0.054*** -0.159*** North-West 0.050** 0.028** 0.050*** -0.128*** Number of observations: 1253; pseudo R2 = 0.109; Chi2 = 445.9; prob > Chi2 = 0.000

n=417; pseudo R2 = 0.0241; Chi2 = 17.69; prob > Chi2 = 0.342 Ethnic Albanians Ethnic Serbs No Probably no Probably yes Yes Age/10 -0.008** -0.006** -0.016** 0.030** -0.028 0.005 0.009 0.014 Male 0.008 0.006 0.017 -0.032 0.026 -0.005 -0.009 -0.013 Married 0.004 0.010 -0.019 -0.027 0.013 Has child(ren) 0.007 -0.026 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 No income 0.011 0.021 -0.040 0.192** -0.040** -0.066** -0.087** < 50 EUR Ref. Ref 50-150 EUR -0.008 -0.006 -0.018 0.031 0.117 -0.024 -0.053 150-300 EUR -0.024** -0.021* -0.070 0.116* 0.088 -0.017 -0.030 -0.041 >300 EUR -0.039*** -0.038*** -0.164* 0.241** 0.086 -0.029 Income non reported -0.050*** -0.052*** -0.278*** 0.380*** 0.154* -0.053* -0.068** Primary Secondary -0.019* -0.015* -0.041* 0.075* 0.001 0.002 0.003 Tertiary -0.012 -0.010 0.052 Student -0.027** -0.024* -0.082 0.133* -0.125 0.019 0.038 0.067 Unemployed -0.030*** -0.027*** -0.091** 0.148*** -0.048 0.015 0.024 Lives in rural area -0.012* -0.032* 0.059* 0.137** -0.022*** -0.043** -0.072** South-East South-West - Central -0.015 0.049 -0.016 -0.023 North 0.079*** 0.050*** 0.075*** -0.204*** 0.103* -0.018* -0.034 -0.051* North-West 0.035*** 0.070*** -0.156*** n=797; pseudo R2 = 0.0448; Chi2 = 68.88; prob > Chi2 = 0.000 n=417; pseudo R2 = 0.0241; Chi2 = 17.69; prob > Chi2 = 0.342

Live separately or in mixed areas? Whole sample (ethnically weighted) Separately In mixed areas Do not know Ethnicity Albanian Ref. Serb 0.656*** -0.680*** 0.025 Non-Serb minority -0.170*** 0.114* 0.056 Age/10 0.000 -0.010 0.009 Male 0.085*** -0.046 -0.039** Married 0.086 -0.081 -0.005 Has child(ren) -0.063* 0.037 0.026 Income No income -0.059 0.031 0.028 < 50 EUR 50-150 EUR -0.060 0.012 0.048 150-300 EUR 0.020 -0.061 0.042 >300 EUR -0.048 0.058 Income non reported -0.012 -0.134 0.146**

Live separately or in mixed areas? Whole sample (ethnically weighted) Separately In mixed areas Do not know Education Primary Ref. Secondary -0.058 0.066 -0.008 Tertiary -0.106*** 0.081 0.025 Student -0.029 0.043 -0.014 Unemployed -0.062 0.037 0.024 Lives in rural area -0.053* 0.062* -0.009 District South-East South-West -0.077* 0.053 0.023 Central 0.006 -0.076 0.069* North -0.088** -0.047 0.136** North-West 0.183*** -0.132** -0.051* N=1351; Chi2 = 550.0; prob > Chi2 = 0.000

Ethnic Albanians Ethnic Serbs Separately In mixed areas Do not know Age/10 0.000 -0.010 0.009 -0.032* -0.004 0.036** Male 0.082** -0.042 -0.040** 0.012 0.014 -0.026 Married 0.067 -0.068 0.011 -0.017 0.006 Has child(ren) -0.060 0.019 0.040 0.036 No income -0.050 0.027 0.023 -0.067 0.039 < 50 EUR Ref. 50-150 EUR -0.049 0.049 -0.102*** 0.053 150-300 EUR -0.064 0.024 0.094 -0.091** -0.003 >300 EUR -0.089 0.022 0.126 -0.079** -0.047 Income non reported -0.129 0.156** 0.210** -0.103*** -0.108 Primary Secondary -0.052 0.055 0.082 0.057 -0.140** Tertiary -0.098** 0.069 0.029 0.010 0.070 -0.080 Student -0.020 0.031 -0.011 0.068 -0.029 -0.039 Unemployed -0.056 0.025 -0.045 0.095 Lives in rural area 0.062* -0.007 -0.033 0.041 South-East South-West 0.035 - Central -0.094* 0.054 -0.316*** 0.045 0.272*** North -0.112*** -0.021 0.132** -0.051 0.016 North-West 0.203*** -0.149** -0.054** n=838; Chi2 = 119.5; prob > Chi2 = 0.000 n=473; Chi2 = 80.61;

Conclusions Ethnicity is a major factor determining attitudes towards the multiethnic state and ethnically mixed habitats Ethnic Serbs are less favourable to ethnic co-location The richer and the more educated (especially the ethnic Albanians) tend to be more favourable to Kosovo as a multiethnic state Important role accrues to age, gender, employment status and region of residence