Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program

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Presentation transcript:

Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program Thursday, April 04, 2019 Limor Ben-Har

Public information only Known unknowns? Disclaimer Public information only Known unknowns?

SOURCE: WINEP

@Gchine, @Saghand @Ardakan @Arak (under construction) @Natanz @Fordow @Esfahan @Esfahan @Gchine, @Saghand @Ardakan SOURCE: ISIS

It’s all about quantity 87,220 kg UF6 fed into FEP 1,177 kg fed into PFEP 137.3 kg LEU 19.75% 7,611 kg LEU 3.5% 693 kg fed into FFEP 95.5 kg LEU 19.75% +237 kg per month 5,688 kg LEU 3.5% 96.3 kg LEU 19.75% sent to conversion* 134.9 kg LEU 19.75% + 15.1 kg per month *RATES CAN TRIPLE WITH NEW CENTRIFUGES SOURCE: IAEA, November 2012; ISIS * 1.6 kg down-blended; 13.6 kg still slated for conversion

Why IS the amount of 19.75% so important? SOURCE: http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/dismantle.pdf

Demonstration (approx.) Total: 1000 atoms, 7 atoms U-235 Total: 200 atoms, 7 atoms U-235 Total: 35 atoms, 7 atoms U-235 Total: 8 atoms, 7 atoms U-235 27 U238 Atoms 800 U238 Atoms 165 U238 Atoms

SOURCE: ISIS

Location is everything? FORDOW Secretly built under a mountain near Qom and made public in 2009 Designed to house up to 3000 centrifuges under ~100m of rock SOURCE: CRS

Fordow SOURCE: ISIS

weaponization Past activities – no cooperation with IAEA Actively destroys Parchin AP diagram (debunked) Clandestine? Source: AP

Ticking clocks unsynchronized? When will they: Have enough material? OBJECTIVE, RELATIVELY DETECTABLE “Immunity”? DEPNDS FROM WHO Breakout? DEPENDS ON MATERIAL&INTENT WHILE THE CLOCK OF INT. PRESSURE AND SANCTIONS KEEPS ON TICKING… *In the meantime, some aspects of nuclear program lag: Arak heavy water reactor; Accident at UCF; Problems at Busher etc.

how many bombs does a quantity yield? IAEA definitions: “Significant Quantity”= 25kg of U-235 “Effective kg”= amount in kg * sq. enrichment So, somewhere between 126kg & 640kg of LEU at 19.75%? ISIS  ~200 AEI  ~140

Different ASSUMPTIONS CREATE DIFFERENT CLOCKS What’s an SQ Location of enrichment to weapons level Timing when they have enough for how many bombs Assume shorter timeline IF SQ is assumed small Natanz is assumed to be involved Believe one or two are enough * RISK ASSESSMENT *

SOURCE: AP