Comparison of a Vascular Study Group of New England risk prediction model with established risk prediction models of in-hospital mortality after elective.

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Comparison of a Vascular Study Group of New England risk prediction model with established risk prediction models of in-hospital mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair Mohammad H. Eslami, MD, Denis Rybin, MS, Gheorghe Doros, PhD, Jeffrey A. Kalish, MD, Alik Farber, MD Journal of Vascular Surgery Volume 62, Issue 5, Pages 1125-1133.e2 (November 2015) DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051 Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Schematic of the process to arrive at the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) parsimonious model. Preoperative medications include β-blockers and statins at the day of surgery, without any information about the duration of the medication use. BMI, Body mass index. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) parsimonious model of predicting mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) are depicted here. The squares indicate the mean difference and are proportional to the weights used. The vertical line indicates no effect. The horizontal lines represent the 95% CI. COPD, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CVD, cerebrovascular disease; HL, Hosmer-Lemeshow. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the different models applied to Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) cohort. AUC, Area under the curve; GAS, Glasgow Aneurysm Score; MED, Medicare model; VGNW, Vascular Governance North West model. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Performance of different models on Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) cohort stratified by American Society of Anesthesiologists risk levels. GAS, Glasgow Aneurysm Score; VGNW, Vascular Governance North West model. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 5 Equation to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of mortality using the β-estimates for each of the variables included in the model (e ≈ 2.78). Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 6 Point distribution of the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) cohort using the devised point scoring system (red) against a hypothetical natural distribution curve (blue). The VSGNE cohort appears to be mostly skewed to the right, with an average point score of 3.18. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2015 62, 1125-1133.e2DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2015.06.051) Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions