Jonathan A. Neuberger Economists Incorporated October 2, 2013

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Presentation transcript:

Jonathan A. Neuberger Economists Incorporated October 2, 2013 Economic Outlook Jonathan A. Neuberger Economists Incorporated October 2, 2013

Understanding where a country is going can depend in large part in understanding where it has been. This presentation on the outlook for the US economy examines key growth factors and extensive empirical data on short-term growth dynamics.

2013 GDP Data is Promising, Yet...

…Growth is Slowly Rising in Personal Consumption Expenditures

Goods Are Strongest Portion of Personal Consumption Expenditures

Retail Sales Should be Slightly Higher at This Point

Growth is Resurgent in Sales of Motor Vehicles and Parts, Yet…

…Even Higher Auto Sales are Required to Support Fundamentals

Spending Weakness is Due to Technical Factors

Housing Sector is the Key: Investment Belies Pent-up Demand

Construction Has Not Kept Pace with Demographics and Replacement Housing Activity

New Homes Sales Important and Positive Sign for Recovery

Increase in Mortgage Rates Slowed Growth

Permits Data Point to Sustainable Housing Recovery

Surprisingly Rapid Rebound in Home Prices

Business Responds After Housing Demand Increases

Government Spending and Shutdown Detracts from GDP

Unemployment Lags Fundamentals

Reconvergence of Replacement Housing Activity and Population Growth Requires 25% Construction Increase Over Four Years