Which Media Receive the Biggest Slices of the Ad Spending Pie According to Borrell Associates’ 2018 Local Political Advertising Outlook, the projected total advertising expenditures for the 2017 Midterms will be $8.5 billion, with broadcast TV still receiving the largest share, or $3.361 billion. The total of $8.5 billion is only 2.5% more than what was spent during the 2014 Midterms because more dollars are being funneled to less- costly digital advertising and cable TV, or $1.88 billion and $1.02 billion, respectively. The “advocacy” sector, which includes PACs, will be the largest source of the $8.5 billion, or $5.4 billion (63.5%), with statewide candidates, $1.57 billion (18.4%); local candidates, $1.32 billion (15.6%); and federal, $212.6 million (2.5%).

Ultimately, All Politics Are Local With all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, 33 seats in the US Senate, 36 governors and thousands of state and local positions at stake, state and local races are forecast to spend 34.0% share of the $8.5 billion total. Of the $1.57 billion forecast for state races, the largest amount will be for state senate seats, or $904.77 million; followed by state house seats, $56.98 million; governorships, $54.01 million; and other state offices, $42.2 million. Of the $1.32 billion forecast for local races, ballot issues will have the most spent, or $802.17 million; followed by municipal government, $362.18 million; local judiciary, $95.55 million; and school boards, $62.62 million.

Targeting Voters by Party Affiliation Pew Research Center’s 10,000 interviews of registered voters during 2017 reveal significant shifts in party identification depending on demographic sector, but, in general, the Democrat Party has benefited the most. Of those interviewed, 37% said they were independents; 33%, Democrats; and 26%, Republicans. Of the 37% of independents, 50% either identify as Democrats or lean Democrats, compared to 42% Republicans (identify or leaning). Traditionally, 90% of people vote according to their party identification while almost 80% of independents vote for the party to which they lean.

Voters Under the Microscope A deeper examination of the Pew Research data reveals women in three of the four generational groups strongly identify or lean Democrat: Millennial women, 70%; Generation X women, 54%; and Baby Boomer women, 53%. Educational level is also a telling metric, as those with a high school diploma or less are virtually equal in party identification: Independent, 33%; Democrat, 32%; and Republican, 30%. Identification changes significantly for those who are college graduates – Independent, 38%; Democrat, 35%; and Republican, 24% – or have postgraduate experience – Independent, 38%; Democrat, 41%; and Republican, 19%.

Positioning for Battle Although Republicans gained control of the US House and Senate primarily because of their opposition to the Affordable Care Act, it could now be one of the major issues Democrats can wield to regain control of the legislative branch. Candidates in at least three gubernatorial races, a state attorney generalship and a US House of Representative seat are advocating either the further decriminalization or complete legalization of marijuana in their states. According to a January 2018 Gallup poll, five issues important to both Republicans and Democrats could cancel each other: environment, the role of the US in the world, energy, business regulation and Social Security and Medicare.

TV Stations’ Secret Weapon and Vulnerability Though digital media may appear to have an advantage, a new study from the Knight Foundation concluded “commercial TV and newspapers dominate local news online,” with newspaper sites dominate in larger markets and TV sites in smaller markets. Deep Roots Analytics, a Republican-focused research group, is advising candidates that Fox Sports’ Home Team Sports is a more cost- effective TV strategy than local news. Many US congressional districts, for example, are included in multiple DMAs, which requires a candidate to buy TV stations in multiple markets, while digital media allows candidates to target their audiences more precisely regardless of their location.

Advertising Strategies Share the Gallup table at the top of page 2 to augment local candidates’ data about the most important issues for Republicans and Democrats, so their commercials emphasize the issues more likely to generate interest and more votes on election day. Use the table on the bottom of page 2 of the Profiler to help you match your station’s strength in urban, suburban and/or rural counties to candidates and issues who are targeting voters geographically. The Media Audit data about working women and mothers’ party affiliation could be very useful for candidates and advocacy groups since women are expected to have a stronger participation at the ballot box for this election cycle.

New Media Strategies As the Knight Foundation research reveals, your station’s Website, especially if you’re in a smaller market, is a major source of online news, which makes it the perfect place for candidates not only to advertise, but also to refer visitors to digital media posts. Suggest candidates provide information or a voters’ guide to help them understand the potential interference of the voting process from other countries or hackers and what they can do to protect their right to vote and be counted accurately. Because the expectation is for a significant increase in young adults voting, local candidates, in particular, must utilize video content extensively to reach these voters, explaining their stance on issues important to them and using the right social media sites to reach them.