Globale Mitteltemperatur Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean for CRUTEM3 updated from Brohan et al. (2006). The smooth curves show decadal variations (see Appendix 3.A). The black curve from CRUTEM3 is compared with those from NCDC (Smith and Reynolds, 2005; blue), GISS (Hansen et al., 2001; red) and Lugina et al. (2005; green). Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean for CRUTEM3 updated from Brohan et al. (2006). The smooth curves show decadal variations (see Appendix 3.A). The black curve from CRUTEM3 is compared with those from NCDC (Smith and Reynolds, 2005; blue), GISS (Hansen et al., 2001; red) and Lugina et al. (2005; green). www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm) Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue curves are deviations from their averages for 1961 to 1990, and the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red curve for the period 1993 to 2001. Error bars show 90% confidence intervals. Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue curves are deviations from their averages for 1961 to 1990, and the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red curve for the period 1993 to 2001. Error bars show 90% confidence intervals. www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Trends der jährlichen Durchschnittstemeratur Linear trend of annual temperatures for 1901 to 2005 (left; °C per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right; °C per decade). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce reliable trends. The minimum number of years needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years for 1901 to 2005 and 18 years for 1979 to 2005. An annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC from Smith and Reynolds (2005). Trends significant at the 5% level are indicated by white + marks. IPCC, AR4, nach Smith and Reynolds (2005), NCDC. +: Siginfikanzlevel 5%, grau: Daten ungenügend

Trends im Jahresniederschlag Trend of annual land precipitation amounts for 1901 to 2005 (top, % per century) and 1979 to 2005 (bottom, % per decade), using the GHCN precipitation data set from NCDC. The percentage is based on the means for the 1961 to 1990 period. Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce reliable trends. The minimum number of years required to calculate a trend value is 66 for 1901 to 2005 and 18 for 1979 to 2005. An annual value is complete for a given year if all 12 monthly percentage anomaly values are present. Note the different colour bars and units in each plot. Trends significant at the 5% level are indicated by black + marks. IPCC, AR4, nach GHCN precipitation data set from NCDC. +: Siginfikanzlevel 5%, grau: Daten ungenügend

Im AR4 benutzte AOGCMs

Entwicklung der Auflösung seit 1990

Observed climatological annual mean SST and, over land, surface air temperature (labelled contours) and the multi-model mean error in these temperatures, simulated minus observed (colour-shaded contours). Observed climatological annual mean SST and, over land, surface air temperature (labelled contours) and the multi-model mean error in these temperatures, simulated minus observed (colour-shaded contours). www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Annual mean precipitation (cm), observed (a) and simulated (b), based on the multimodel mean. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 1980 to 1999 is shown, and the model results are for the same period in the 20th-century simulations in the MMD at PCMDI. In (a), observations were ot available for the grey regions. Annual mean precipitation (cm), observed (a) and simulated (b), based on the multimodel mean. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 1980 to 1999 is shown, and the model results are for the same period in the 20th-century simulations in the MMD at PCMDI. In (a), observations were not available for the grey regions. Results for individual models can be seen in Supplementary Material, Figure S8.9.

Attributierung www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the plus/minus one standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the gray bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29} www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980– 1999. The central and right panels show the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation multi-Model average projections for the B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom) SRES scenarios averaged over decades 2020–2029 (center) and 2090–2099 (right). The left panel shows corresponding uncertainties as the relative probabilities of estimated global average warming from several different AOGCM and EMICs studies for the same periods. Some studies present results only for a subset of the SRES scenarios, or for various model versions. Therefore the difference in the number of curves, shown in the lefthand panels, is due only to differences in the availability of results. {Figures 10.8 and 10.28} www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Niederschlag DJF unter A1B Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change. {Figure 10.9} Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February. White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change

Niederschlag JJA unter A1B Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change. {Figure 10.9} www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models, adapted from Tebaldi et al. (2006). (a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (SRES B1), middle (SRES A1B) and high (SRES A2) scenario. (b) Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario. www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models, adapted from Tebaldi et al. (2006). (a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (SRES B1), middle (SRES A1B) and high (SRES A2) scenario. (b) Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario. Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke

Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the 1980-1999 mean) in the past and as projected for the future. For the period before 1870, global measurements of sea level are not available. The grey shading shows the uncertainty in the estimated long-term rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3). The red line is a reconstruction of global mean sea level from tide gauges (Section 5.5.2.1), and the red shading denotes the range of variations from a smooth curve. The green line shows global mean sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The blue shading represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century, relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean, and has been calculated independently from the observations. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly dependent on the emissions scenario (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of sea level rise projections for other scenarios considered in this report). Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres (Section 10.7.4). www.pik-potsdam.de/luedeke